Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (May) May’s EC business and consumer survey underlined the enormity of the task facing euro-zone policymakers if they are going to convert the growing “consensus” on the need for stronger growth across the... 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Growth plans look futile as German activity falls European policymakers focused again last week on the need for growth in the region, with Wednesday’s informal EU summit ending in pledges to speed up structural reforms, strengthen job creation and... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The consequences of a euro-zone break-up Markets have come around to our long-held view that some form of euro-zone break-up is likely, but opinion remains divided on the likely economic and financial fall-out. While even a limited and well... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Economic slowdown triggers fall in capital values The euro-zone economy narrowly avoided falling back into a technical recession in Q1. But GDP merely stagnated and survey evidence point to renewed falls to come. In any event, the economic slowdown... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for euro-zone equities? The crisis in the euro-zone has exacted a heavy toll on regional stock markets. The sharp falls in equity prices have driven valuations down to attractive levels in many Member States, both relative... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1) & German ZEW (May) The provisional Q1 euro-zone GDP figures revealed that the economy has narrowly avoided a technical recession – temporarily. But the region remains worryingly reliant on growth in Germany and a... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Has Greece already crossed the Rubicon? Political deadlock in Greece has reignited fears it could be on cusp of a euro-zone exit. The most likely outcome of another election is a victory for the pro-bail-out New Democracy and PASOK parties... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update RICS Global Survey too upbeat on Polish and Czech rental values Last week’s Q1 2012 RICS Global Survey revealed a divergence in surveyors’ expectations for commercial property rental growth in Emerging Europe. We agree that the outlook is brightest in Russia and... 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is the Q1 fall in all-property capital values a sign of what’s to come? Euro-zone capital values suffered a fall in Q1. Although the decline was small, it was pretty widely based. As a result, it does nothing to alter our view that euro-zone commercial property markets... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Austerity is the best policy Despite weaker survey data, the ECB is in no hurry to sanction further measures to boost euro-zone growth. It feels the existing accommodative policy stance is providing the region with the basic... 7th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Recession to act as a drag on occupier markets and rents Over the past few months we have seen little reason to alter in either direction our euro-zone commercial property forecasts. With no resolution in sight to the region’s debt crisis, we think that all... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can Hollande really transform France’s outlook? François Hollande’s promises of a pro-growth strategy and a stronger leadership role in Europe have raised hopes about France’s economic outlook. But his bold words have so far been backed by few firm... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
Growth to disappoint as the euro-zone crisis drags on The euro-zone economy is heading back into recession. And if we are right that the euro-zone is not sustainable in its current form, the downturn will extend into 2013 and eventually encompass all... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Apr.) April’s EC business and consumer survey confirmed the downbeat picture painted by other recent indicators and dashed any lingering hopes that the euro-zone economy may escape a double-dip recession. 26th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Austerity backlash brings new dangers The backlash against austerity in the euro-zone could improve the region’s growth outlook. But it brings new dangers too, not least by putting dissenting countries on a collision course with Germany. 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are real estate equities understating the risks for 2012? An analysis of real estate equity prices suggests that our strongly negative capital value growth projections for 2012 may be pessimistic. However, since equity markets have not yet fully priced in... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
