Europe Economics Weekly Grexit risks rising Several developments last week arguably brought Greece closer to exiting the euro-zone than it has ever been. While the Government appeared to give ground on its demands for debt restructuring, its... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jan.) The latest fiscal data suggest that the peripheral economies continued to strengthen their budget positions at the end of last year. But many look set to have missed their 2014 targets and Greece’s... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rise of populist parties unlikely to end austerity Syriza’s victory in the Greek general election may increase the influence of anti-austerity parties elsewhere in the euro-zone, most notably Podemos in Spain. But resistance from Germany seems set to... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Crisis 2.0? The onset of deflation in the euro-zone and the recent developments in Greece have served as powerful reminders of the lasting effects of the region’s debt crisis. The ECB will seek to tackle... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Lower oil prices unlikely to drive French retail recovery in 2015 With the outlook for French consumer spending still weak and flows of wealthy tourists unlikely to grow in the short-term, retail rents in Paris and Lyon are unlikely to experience particularly strong... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German, French and Spanish Industrial Production (Nov.) November’s country data on industrial production and trade suggest that the euro-zone’s major economies have continued to stagnate at best, increasing the threat of a prolonged bout of deflation in... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Further yield compression to boost capital values Further monetary easing from the ECB is unlikely to be decisive enough to put the euro-zone on a stronger growth trajectory, implying that the outlook for occupier markets is subdued. Nevertheless... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q3) & French Business Confidence (Nov.) The second release of Q3 German GDP confirmed that the economy expanded by a meagre 0.1%. The breakdown offered some hope, with consumer spending and exports rising strongly, but surveys suggest that... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3 Prov.) The small expansion in the euro-zone economy in Q3 has not diminished the need for both the European Central Bank (ECB) and national governments to respond to the persistent risk of deflation in the... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & French GDP (Q3) Q3’s near stagnation of the German economy confirmed that economic weakness has spread to the core of the single currency area. While France performed marginally better, it seems that the euro-zone... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & French Industrial Production (Sep.) September’s disappointing rebound in German industrial production increased the risks that both the German and euro-zone economies contracted in Q3 and added to the pressure on the ECB and German... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Oct.) All peripheral economies narrowed their budget deficits in September but France and Italy submitted draft budgets that flouted EU fiscal rules. 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Oct.) October’s EC Business and Consumer Survey suggests that the euro-zone economy got off to a weak start in Q4, after broadly stagnating in Q3. 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French fiscal slippage could promote more pragmatic policy The French Government’s submission today of a budget that flouts the European Commission’s fiscal rules will be a key test of EU authorities’ resolve. We expect a compromise to be reached that forces... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Stalled recovery adds to pressure on policymakers The European economic recovery has weakened, with the euro-zone now at risk of recession and countries outside the region feeling the effects on their exports. While the euro-zone’s peripheral... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Vote of confidence to offer limited hope for France The French Government looks set to win a vote of confidence tomorrow, allowing it to pursue long-overdue business friendly reforms. But it could take many years for the reforms to bear fruit and... 15th September 2014 · 1 min read
