Europe Economics Focus How will the French economy fare after the election? France’s presidential election puts the country, and arguably the entire European Union, at a historic crossroads. The more likely path is one of liberal reforms that could boost growth and strengthen... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & French Industrial Production (Feb.) February’s sharp rise in German industrial production and wider trade surplus help to reconcile the recent gap between the hard data and surveys, and imply that GDP rose sharply in Q1. But the French... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Ger. & Spa. Retail Sales, French Cons. Spending (Feb.) Today’s expenditure data gave mixed messages on the health of the euro-zone’s consumer sector. While higher inflation does not appear to have hit German consumer spending in Q1, spending growth may... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What is the state of play as election season kicks off? Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte described last week’s election as the “quarter finals to beat the wrong sort of populism”. The forthcoming French presidential election will be the semi-final, and the... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Regional France retail rental growth to slow from 2018 Weaker real wage growth in France will cause consumer spending growth to slow over the next couple of years. This will lead to softer demand for prime high street units in the French regional cities... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should we believe the upbeat French business surveys? The positive message from France’s business surveys suggests that economic growth will accelerate sharply in the coming months. But they probably overstated growth again in Q1, while political fears... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Industrial Production, French Trade (Jan.) January’s rise in German industrial production reversed December’s fall and provided a solid start to Q1. But so far, hard data on Germany and elsewhere in the euro-zone suggest that growth will not... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Expenditure Breakdown (Q4) The final estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q4 showed that growth was driven mainly by household spending. But with rising energy inflation now weighing on households’ real income growth, we expect the... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Next French President won’t enjoy carte blanche None of the three frontrunners in this spring’s French presidential election looks likely to be able to depend on majority support in Parliament should they be elected. This will weaken their capacity... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update “Macronomics” could put France on the right track French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron last night confirmed that he intends to cut overall government spending, boost public investment and overhaul the labour market. These are all long... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Have Paris retail rents reached a plateau? Stagnant rental values in the prime Paris retail sector over the past couple of years have seen the view that rental values have reached a ceiling gain momentum. But we believe that the factors which... 20th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would Le Pen’s new French franc rise or fall? We think that a new French franc would fall sharply against the euro if Marine Le Pen became President and took France out of the single currency. While the likelihood of these events is low, it is... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets’ fears over Le Pen outweigh hopes for Macron Marine Le Pen’s announcement of her radical vision for France, particularly her intentions for an exit from the European Union and the euro, unnerved euro-zone financial markets last week. Her main... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French & Italian Industrial Production (Dec.) The decline in French industrial production in December marked a weak end to 2016, echoing falls in a number of other euro-zone countries. But Italian industry put in an unexpectedly strong... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Le Pen would face a bumpy and uncertain road to “Frexit” Marine Le Pen’s desire to take France out of the euro zone and the European Union if she is elected President in May faces political and legal hurdles. They are not insurmountable but the process is... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & French Trade (Dec.) December’s drop in German industrial production is unlikely to be a sign of things to come, but it does suggest that the economy entered 2017 on a slightly weaker footing than the surveys have implied... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
