Europe Economics Weekly Is Le Pen’s ECU plan feasible? Marine Le Pen’s suggestion last week that France could leave the euro-zone, devalue and then peg the new currency to the euro to limit exchange rate volatility has been written off as a hopeless... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & French Flash CPI (Dec.) While German inflation surged to a three-year high in December, the French rate barely increased. And with underlying price pressures still very subdued throughout the euro-zone, the ECB need not... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will political risks halt the euro-zone recovery? Rising euroscepticism and a packed election timetable next year mean that there is a significant risk that the euro-zone breaks up. Even in our central scenario in which the currency union holds... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.) December’s unchanged euro-zone Composite PMI implies that GDP growth picked up slightly in the fourth quarter. But the weakness of some of the hard data at the start of Q4 suggests that an... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French Industrial Production & German Trade (Oct.) October’s French industrial production and German trade data, combined with soft data released earlier in the week, suggest that the euro-zone’s largest economies made a slower start to the fourth... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & French Trade (Oct.) October’s German industrial production and French trade data suggest that the euro-zone’s largest economies made a slower start to the fourth quarter than the business surveys had implied. 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Assessing the risks around the French election Recent events seem to have further boosted the chances of the National Front’s Marine Le Pen in next spring’s presidential election. Of course, she has been quick to claim that Donald Trump’s victory... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Where is political risk greatest? Last week’s US election result raised the question of where the next political shock might be. The popularity of far-right candidates and forthcoming major elections make France and the Netherlands... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany-France divergence looks set to last Last week brought some good news about the euro-zone economy, with October’s composite PMI and EC ESI both pointing to an acceleration of growth. But both the hard data and survey indicators look much... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response France, Spain & Austria GDP (Q3, 1st est.) Provisional Q3 GDP data from France and Spain support the message from the business surveys that euro-zone GDP continued to increase at a pretty slow pace. And there are clear signs that the French... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Is sterling now “fair” value? Although sterling has fallen a long way since the vote for Brexit, the IMF’s latest forecasts for the UK’s current account balance suggest that there is no fundamental reason for it to bounce back... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rise in French unemployment is a worrying sign The recent increase in French unemployment seems unlikely to be reversed rapidly. And while a new government may be elected next year promising job-boosting reforms, its success will be limited by... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German, French & Spanish Industrial Production (Aug.) Sharp rises in industrial production in Germany, France and Spain suggest that industry might contribute positively to euro-zone GDP growth in Q3. 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Paris office rents on course to surpass consensus forecasts In the first half of 2016, prime office rental values in Paris have already matched the full year increase predicted by the IPF consensus forecasts. With take-up strong and a limited supply of quality... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Aug) August’s slight rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI suggests that, while the region has so far weathered the UK’s Brexit vote, economic conditions remain fairly subdued. 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Paris offices shrug off France’s wider economic woes French GDP growth slowed markedly in Q2 and is set to be anaemic over the next few years. But, H1 2016 has seen a surge in office investment activity in La Défense, reflecting growing confidence in... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
