Europe Data Response German & Spanish Industrial Production, French Trade (Jan.) January’s rise in German industrial production reversed December’s fall and provided a solid start to Q1. But so far, hard data on Germany and elsewhere in the euro-zone suggest that growth will not... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Expenditure Breakdown (Q4) The final estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q4 showed that growth was driven mainly by household spending. But with rising energy inflation now weighing on households’ real income growth, we expect the... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Next French President won’t enjoy carte blanche None of the three frontrunners in this spring’s French presidential election looks likely to be able to depend on majority support in Parliament should they be elected. This will weaken their capacity... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update “Macronomics” could put France on the right track French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron last night confirmed that he intends to cut overall government spending, boost public investment and overhaul the labour market. These are all long... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Have Paris retail rents reached a plateau? Stagnant rental values in the prime Paris retail sector over the past couple of years have seen the view that rental values have reached a ceiling gain momentum. But we believe that the factors which... 20th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would Le Pen’s new French franc rise or fall? We think that a new French franc would fall sharply against the euro if Marine Le Pen became President and took France out of the single currency. While the likelihood of these events is low, it is... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets’ fears over Le Pen outweigh hopes for Macron Marine Le Pen’s announcement of her radical vision for France, particularly her intentions for an exit from the European Union and the euro, unnerved euro-zone financial markets last week. Her main... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French & Italian Industrial Production (Dec.) The decline in French industrial production in December marked a weak end to 2016, echoing falls in a number of other euro-zone countries. But Italian industry put in an unexpectedly strong... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Le Pen would face a bumpy and uncertain road to “Frexit” Marine Le Pen’s desire to take France out of the euro zone and the European Union if she is elected President in May faces political and legal hurdles. They are not insurmountable but the process is... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & French Trade (Dec.) December’s drop in German industrial production is unlikely to be a sign of things to come, but it does suggest that the economy entered 2017 on a slightly weaker footing than the surveys have implied... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Paris offices rental growth to disappoint in 2017 An increase in the Paris development pipeline for 2017 means that our previous forecast for office rents this year is now unlikely to be met. Instead, we now expect prime rents to grow by just 1.5%... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response France GDP (Q4, 1st est.) & CPI (Jan., Prov.) Provisional data revealed that the French economy performed fairly well in Q4, while inflation picked up in January. But uncertainty surrounding the forthcoming presidential election looks set to... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French election pits liberalism against protectionism Following the nomination yesterday of left-winger Benoît Hamon as the Socialist Party’s presidential candidate, the battle lines on which the election will be fought have become clearer. At this stage... 30th January 2017 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update What do Trump’s latest comments mean for Europe? The US President-elect’s perceived attempts to talk the dollar down and threat to impose tariffs on BMW imports to the US have limited implications for the euro-zone’s export prospects. But his... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone back in the spotlight in 2017 The European economies have continued to fare relatively well, with euro-zone growth in particular supported by a weaker currency and low inflation. However, a temporary surge in inflation this year... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Surveys and hard data point to Q4 GDP growth pick-up Recent hard data for the euro-zone have generally been encouraging. Despite falling in November, the level of retail sales remains fairly high after a strong rise in October. And while industrial... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
