Europe Economic Outlook Missing the global tightening cycle The euro-zone should regain some momentum in the coming months, at least compared to its dire performance at the end of last year. But we think the economy will expand by just 1% in 2019 as a whole... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update French bonds likely to remain under pressure in 2019 Even if the domestic situation in France has calmed down, the underlying causes of the recent unrest linger. What’s more, we think that France has become more vulnerable to contagion risks from Italy. 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Business surveys highlight particular weakness of Italy While business surveys have weakened throughout the euro-zone, they imply quite different things for growth in each economy. The Spanish surveys still bode well. But the German and French indicators... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Macron’s measures unlikely to boost the economy Protests in France are likely to put a serious dent in GDP growth in Q4. And while the giveaways announced yesterday will boost disposable incomes next year, any positive effect on the economy is... 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly GDP growth slowing, but wage growth rising The latest data on economic activity in the euro-zone have been weak, but policymakers at the ECB will have been encouraged by the continued acceleration in wage growth. At its meeting on Thursday... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & French Industrial Production (Oct.) October’s industrial production data for Germany and France add to the evidence that the euro-zone economy is unlikely to bounce back strongly after Q3’s slowdown in GDP growth. 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French riots add to downside risks to outlook Riots over living costs in France have not altered our view that the economy will outperform most of its neighbours in the next two years. But they highlight how difficult it will be for President... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Plateauing French investment points to stable yields With no obvious indication that French property investment will change significantly next year, our upcoming forecasting round is likely to see a flattening in our property yield profile for 2019. 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Modest slowdown masks large divergences Prospects for Europe have deteriorated somewhat as slowing global demand has begun to affect exports and a sharp rise in bond yields has darkened the outlook for Italy. Some of the major players... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Lyon offices to benefit from pickup in French growth The French economy has disappointed so far this year, but we expect stronger growth in the second half of the year and into 2019. This will be positive for the regional office markets such as Lyon... 2nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Divergent debt prospects in Italy and France The Italian and French governments’ fiscal plans, announced this week, suggest that the headline budget deficit will be similar in both countries over the next few years. But we suspect that the... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French 2019 Budget will support domestic demand The draft French Budget for 2019 confirmed that the Government intends to tighten underlying fiscal policy a little. But several of the planned measures should serve to stimulate private spending... 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French GDP (Q2, 1st estimate) The 0.2% expansion in France’s GDP in Q2 was disappointing. But since temporary factors weighed on growth, we still think that euro-zone growth picked up in Q2. 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Jul.), French & Italian Ind. Prod. (May) The further decline in German ZEW investor sentiment seems to reflect concerns about the impact of possible protectionist measures. But May’s industrial production data for France and Italy support... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French consumer gloom set to lift The deterioration in French consumer morale suggests that household spending growth will remain fairly subdued in the next couple of quarters. But we doubt that this will last. The bright outlook for... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & French Industrial Production (Apr.) April’s data for industrial production in Germany and France add to the evidence that the euro-zone economy is unlikely to rebound strongly after Q1’s slowdown. 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
