Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep pushing on a string We expect economic growth to remain sluggish this year as external demand picks up only slowly and domestic demand softens. Employment growth is slowing, which will cause household incomes and... 21st January 2020 · 30 mins read
Europe Economics Update France a European bright spot despite slower growth The French economy is likely to continue to perform reasonably well this year as solid consumer spending growth partly offsets fiscal tightening and a slowdown in investment. Moreover, the pensions... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Five key questions about the French pensions reform The planned reforms to France’s retirement schemes that have provoked strikes and protests this month are important to put the country’s pensions and public finances on a more sustainable footing. But... 20th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus France labour market progress not due to reforms French President Emmanuel Macron’s emphasis on overhauling France’s ailing labour market is long overdue. But while there are signs that the changes are starting to take effect, the labour market... 17th December 2019 · 13 mins read
Europe Economics Update Bigger problems in France’s labour market than strikes France’s public sector strikes will probably dampen economic activity this quarter, but experience from previous, similar walkouts suggests that the hit to GDP will be small. Moreover, while protests... 6th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Oct) & France GDP (Q3) The decline in the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in October adds to the evidence that the economy started Q4 on weak footing. 30th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Paris office yields to fall another 20bps by end-2020 As valuations have improved this year and investors have become willing to accept lower yields, demand for quality Paris assets has ballooned, most likely driving a record year for French investment... 23rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Limited upward movement in Paris prime retail rents While Paris prime retail rents rose in 2018, we doubt this marks the start of a prolonged upward trend. With tourist flows set to stagnate due to a weak global economy, rents will not rise by much... 9th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update French fiscal policy to be tighter in 2020 The giveaways to households and firms announced by French finance minister Bruno Le Maire yesterday do not alter the fact that there will be a tightening in France’s fiscal stance in 2020. Indeed, the... 27th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update French industry looks resilient to German slowdown We expect French industrial production growth to slow in the coming year or so. But it should continue to outperform German industry thanks to its focus on less cyclical products such as food, energy... 18th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Vacancy set to stabilise at cyclical lows in Paris Paris office take-up is likely to drop back a little this year, but with economic growth staying steady, it’s unlikely to fall off a cliff. A fairly restricted supply outlook means that vacancy can... 4th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Eight quick points about the European elections Projections of the results of the European elections confirm that pro-European parties will continue to have a clear majority in the European Parliament (EP) itself, so little will change at EU level... 27th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Tariffs remain a big risk for the DAX Although equities in the euro-zone have fallen sharply in the past week as the US-China trade dispute has flared up again, they are still much higher than they were at the start of the year. This... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update France This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for France’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Core French assets still offer good value A period of low, but stable growth and historically low interest rates will be supportive of demand for French assets over the next few years. While the retail sector is seeing evidence of some re... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) February’s Composite PMI provides some reassurance that the euro-zone economy as a whole is still growing. But industrial output is falling, and with the global economy slowing and trade tensions... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
