Europe Economics Weekly Drop back in bond yields takes pressure off ECB The fall in sovereign bond yields over the past week may make things a little easier for the ECB Governing Council when it meets on 10 th June. We think it is likely to replace its commitment to make... 28th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response France Flash CPI (Jan.) The surprisingly big jump in France’s headline inflation rate in January was primarily driven by a surge in manufactured goods inflation as winter sales were postponed by two weeks. This will be... 2nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response France, Spain & Austria GDP (Q4) Tough restrictions imposed in France and Austria last autumn to curb the spread of COVID-19 caused both countries’ GDP to fall in Q4. Spain’s laxer approach meant its economy actually grew. But for... 29th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update France’s slow vaccine rollout won’t prevent recovery France’s tight restrictions are set to be in place for at least another month or two, so GDP will not recover strongly during Q1. However, although the slow start to the vaccine rollout poses a... 13th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Smaller hit to French GDP from Lockdown 2.0 A survey of firms from France’s central bank and high frequency mobility for last week suggest that the new national lockdown will have a smaller impact on France’s GDP than the first, perhaps of... 9th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response French GDP (Q3 2020) The massive increase in GDP in Q3 is of no comfort to French policymakers or households, who are now contending with a second national lockdown. Indeed, we expect GDP to fall by 2.5% q/q or so in Q4. 30th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update What to make of the new Franco-German lockdowns We think the one-month national “lockdowns” will result in GDP contracting by around 2.5% q/q in France in Q4 while in Germany GDP will be flat at best. There is obviously a big risk that the... 29th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Paris offices offer cold comfort Even though lockdown restrictions had eased, office take-up in Paris in Q3 was still well below pre-virus levels. And the recent imposition of tighter restrictions in Paris will likely curtail leasing... 16th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Recovery in France likely to outpace Spain and Italy France’s virus-related slump in the first half of 2020 rivalled the big falls in GDP in Italy and Spain. But its recovery should be stronger because working from home is more common, the economy is... 24th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response French GDP (Q2) While the catastrophic collapse in French Q2 GDP was hardly a shock given the country’s stringent lockdown, it still highlights the sheer extent of the economic damage wrought by the pandemic. High... 31st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update What to make of the Franco-German fiscal proposal The €500bn EU joint fiscal package suggested by France and Germany would be a significant move towards fiscal union. However, the benefit to the countries hit hardest by the coronavirus crisis... 19th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response French, Spanish & Austrian GDP (Q1) Lockdown measures to contain the coronavirus caused unprecedented quarterly contractions in GDP in France and Spain in Q1. And with the restrictions set to remained unchanged until mid-May and then be... 30th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update How quickly will euro-zone activity return to normal? Although restrictions are set to be lifted in the coming weeks, economic activity in the euro-zone will remain significantly below pre-virus levels for a long period. Consumers are likely to be wary... 29th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Bank of France floats a version of helicopter money The Bank of France floated the idea recently that the ECB could use “helicopter money” to channel funds to companies after the worst of the current crisis has abated. While this idea has some... 15th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update French statisticians think GDP down 35% Measuring the economic fallout from the coronavirus is fraught with uncertainty, but the French statistics office estimates that economic activity is currently running a whopping 35% below normal. If... 26th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response France Bus. Conf. (Mar.) & German Cons. Conf. (Apr.) The largest-ever fall in French business confidence in March leaves the survey pointing to a severe slump in activity at the end of Q1. But the reality is almost certainly much worse than this. 26th March 2020 · 2 mins read
