Europe Commercial Property Update Is southern Europe finally embracing e-commerce? While COVID-19 has forced consumers in southern Europe to shop online, we think that e-commerce penetration will remain lower for structural reasons, which is one reason why prime retail rents in... 14th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spanish recovery to be slow and protracted Economic activity in Spain has collapsed as a result of the measures to contain the coronavirus. And even if the government begins to lift some of the restrictions next week, as it has suggested, the... 9th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Mar.) The PMIs show that activity in Italy and Spain plummeted even before the authorities in both countries shut down all non-essential businesses. Euro-zone GDP is almost certain to fall at a record pace... 3rd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spanish government too optimistic on 2020 growth Spain’s new government has downgraded its forecasts for economic growth and eased up on the planned pace of budget deficit reduction. But we think that GDP growth this year will be even slower than it... 13th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep pushing on a string We expect economic growth to remain sluggish this year as external demand picks up only slowly and domestic demand softens. Employment growth is slowing, which will cause household incomes and... 21st January 2020 · 30 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update High rents and softer economy weigh on Spanish retail Despite Spain’s relatively strong economic outlook compared to its European peers, with real prime rents at high levels and the economy losing momentum, we think that prime retail rents will fall in... 13th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Slowing housing market won’t derail Spain’s economy House price inflation in Spain is now slowing but we do not envisage a slump in property prices that would derail GDP growth. After all, economic and financial conditions are supportive and there is... 5th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spanish political impasse to drag on The prospect of further political stalemate in Spain, following yesterday’s inconclusive election result, does not alter the short-term economic outlook. But it does mean that there is little chance... 11th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Politics likely to burden Spain’s assets beyond election Polls suggest that the general election in Spain this weekend will not end the political deadlock there. That is the key reason why, despite brighter growth prospects, we doubt that bonds and equities... 7th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s economy to slow further after election Spain’s fourth general election in as many years looks likely to result in further political stasis, but we doubt that this will have a detrimental effect on the economy. Nevertheless, weaker consumer... 5th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Portugal/Spain spread won’t fall further in our view The yield of 10-year government bonds in Portugal has fallen below that of their counterparts in Spain this week after Portugal’s Socialist Party retained power in Sunday’s legislative elections... 11th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Momentum in Barcelona offices to continue Following a bold start to the year, office take-up in Barcelona looks set to record its strongest year since 2005 which, coupled with falling vacancy rates, should boost rental growth. Indeed... 25th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Eight quick points about the European elections Projections of the results of the European elections confirm that pro-European parties will continue to have a clear majority in the European Parliament (EP) itself, so little will change at EU level... 27th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Divergence in E-Z peripheral bonds likely to continue The yield of 10-year government bonds in Italy has moved in the opposite direction to the yields of 10-year government bonds in Spain and Portugal recently. While we don’t expect that to continue, we... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Election outcome won’t end Spanish outperformance Following this weekend’s election, we suspect that Spain’s next government will tighten fiscal policy slightly, contributing to slower GDP growth over the coming years. But the country still looks set... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Spain’s economy will slow but continue to outperform Spain’s period of very strong growth has come to an end. Nevertheless, the latest data suggest that in the run-up to this weekend’s election, it is growing at a decent pace. And there still appears to... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
