Europe Economic Outlook Stagflation to drag on, rates near peak We expect the mild recession in the euro-zone to drag on for the rest of the year. The drop-back in energy prices will provide some relief for households and companies but will be partly offset by... 21st June 2023 · 32 mins read
Europe Economics Update Double jeopardy if you bank in Spain Over the past year, Spanish households have seen a bigger increase in their cost of borrowing than those of any other large euro-zone economy, but the increase in the interest paid on deposits has... 4th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Why has Spain’s economic recovery been weak? Spain’s underperformance since the pandemic can be explained in part by the incomplete recovery in its tourism sector and in part by the sharp fall in real household disposable incomes. That said, we... 26th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Strong supply to drag on Spanish industrial rents Industrial occupier demand in Spain is set to slow sharply this year and next, as the economy falls into recession. And with both Madrid and Barcelona poised to see a record level of speculative... 25th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Mar.) March’s PMIs suggest that the economy expanded in Q1. They also point to further gains in employment and strong price pressures. With the turmoil in the banking sector having stabilised, this makes us... 5th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany & Spain Flash Inflation (March) The big falls in headline inflation in Germany and Spain should provide some relief for struggling households in the coming months. And core inflation in Germany may now have passed its peak. However... 30th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep policy tight despite recession The euro-zone economy is set to perform much worse than consensus forecasts suggest over the next two years, with a recession looking likely. That is mainly because monetary policy and bank lending... 28th March 2023 · 27 mins read
Europe Data Response Spain GDP (Q4) Spain’s GDP increased in Q4 and is performing better than we expected only a couple of months ago. But Spain is still a laggard in Europe, with the economy smaller than it was before Covid. We think... 27th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Be wary of the Spanish inflation data A closer look at Spain’s inflation data shows that there are significant measurement difficulties affecting both energy and core price data. However, we still expect measured headline inflation to... 24th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spanish inflation will soon be below 2% The fall in Spanish gas and electricity prices that has already happened is likely to cause energy inflation to slump to minus 20% in the coming months and this in turn will pull headline inflation... 16th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales (Oct.) & Final PMIs (Nov.) The sharp drop in euro-zone retail spending in October is consistent with our view that – notwithstanding the slight uptick in some business surveys recently – the economy is entering recession. With... 5th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey and Spain HICP (November) The small increase in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for November suggests that prospects for the euro-zone economy may no longer be deteriorating. We still expect a recession, but it is... 29th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Barcelona prime offices to underperform Madrid Spanish office rental values are expected to be harder hit than the euro-zone average as the looming recession weighs on occupier demand and higher interest rates push up yields. However, at a market... 9th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Oct.) The final euro-zone PMIs for October paint a clear picture of falling activity and sky-high inflation. We expect the ECB to prioritise the fight against inflation and press on with raising the deposit... 4th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Weakness in Spanish household spending to persist Household consumption has been weaker in Spain than in other big euro-zone economies, reflecting the slow rebound in tourism, more limited fiscal support and higher inflation. The latter is set to... 28th July 2022 · 3 mins read
