Europe Economics Weekly Negative rates are no silver bullet on their own A negative interest rate on banks' excess reserves at the ECB might have some effect on banks' behaviour and at least prove that the ECB is prepared to follow its dovish words with action. But it must... 21st April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Deflation dangers persist The recovery in the European economy appears to have picked up a bit of speed in the early months of 2014. The euro-zone now looks set to expand by 1% or more this year, a significant improvement on... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What do jobs data imply for the peripheral occupier markets? Since the crisis, employment in the periphery has underperformed the euro-zone average. But recent data does at least show some positives for Portugal. And while sustained employment growth in Spain... 4th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Spain's recovery building momentum? Although timely activity indicators suggest that the Spanish economy may have built a bit of momentum at the start of 2014, we suspect that the recovery will remain disappointingly weak. 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Stars still aligned for more ECB support Despite last week's stronger than expected euro-zone inflation figures, the combination of still very weak price pressures, the strong euro and recent falls in liquidity in the banking sector still... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will Spain’s and Italy’s bond spreads continue to fall? The yield spreads of Spanish and Italian government bonds over German Bunds began to fall sharply following the announcement of the ECB’s Outright Monetary Transactions programme in the summer of 2012... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Feb.) & Spanish GDP (Q4) The small rise in the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in February provided another indication that the economic recovery has built up a little momentum at the start of the... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Time to reassess the outlook for peripheral property yields? Strong investment market activity in the fourth quarter, particularly in Spain and other peripheral markets, suggests that our 2014 forecast for unchanged yields in most euro-zone property markets may... 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Spain set for a household spending-led recovery? The Spanish economy may have ended 2013 on a relatively high note. But we would be wary of concluding that all the pieces are now in place for a solid and sustained economic recovery this year. 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Deflation dangers cast shadow over recovery The European economy looks set for another year of weak growth in 2014, with the euro-zone likely to do little more than stagnate. Against that background, the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to... 15th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Next move in Spanish office vacancy rates likely to be downwards Signs that Spain's labour market has now turned a corner, both nationally and in its two largest cities, are clearly good news for office occupier markets. Falls in unemployment over the past year... 7th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish prospects are improving, but only gradually December’s drop in Spanish unemployment will bolster hopes that the labour market has reached a turning point and the economic recovery may spread to the household sector. But while we have revised up... 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The pitfalls in the euro-zone’s road to recovery Although our forecast for euro-zone GDP growth in 2014 of 0.5% is now only a little more downbeat than the consensus estimate, there remain plenty of risks that could yet derail the region's recovery... 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus What is the outlook for commercial property in Spain and Italy? The economic problems facing Italy mean that, in our view, it is too soon to call the floor for capital values in office and industrial markets. By contrast, we do expect the next big move in Spanish... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Rating changes don't confirm convergence Last week’s rating changes by S&P, which stripped the Netherlands of its triple A status and moved Spain from negative watch to stable, appeared to re-affirm the recent message from the economic data... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook 2014: A year of stability for euro-zone property The latest economic and property market data from the single currency region sit comfortably with our forecasts that commercial property in the euro-zone faces a further year of stability in rental... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
