Europe Economics Update What next for Spain and Catalonia? The central Government in Madrid will now attempt to take direct administrative control of Catalonia following the region’s declaration of independence. We suspect that Madrid will achieve its aim of... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Catalan situation could still escalate further While Catalonia’s president avoided inflaming tensions with Madrid further in his speech yesterday, as long as the situation drags on there is likely to be some hit to business sentiment. Ultimately... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will other regions push for independence? After Catalonia’s vote, it seems unlikely that other Spanish regions will soon push for independence. But in Italy, later this month two regions are set to hold referendums aimed at achieving greater... 3rd October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Catalonia: What next? Despite the “yes” vote in yesterday’s independence referendum in Catalonia, there appears to be little chance that the region will secede from Spain in the coming months. We think the most likely... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Flash CPI (Sep.) September’s flash inflation data for Germany and Spain suggest that euro-zone inflation was probably unchanged from August’s 1.5%. And the likely falls in core inflation in both Germany and Spain... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Huge costs make Catalan independence unlikely A unilateral declaration of independence after October’s referendum could severely destabilise the economies of Catalonia and Spain. But given this, and the political and legal barriers to secession... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Trade, French & Spanish Industrial Production (Jul.) July’s data on German trade, as well as French and Spanish industrial production, provide some early hints that euro-zone GDP growth might slow a touch in Q3. But the continued strength of activity... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Flash CPI (Aug.) August’s increases in German and Spanish HICP inflation point to an increase in eurozone inflation to about 1.5%. But the relatively subdued rates of core inflation in both economies support the ECB’s... 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Spanish GDP Breakdown (Q2) The second release of Spanish GDP confirmed that quarterly growth edged up in Q2 due to stronger net trade. While we expect growth to slow in the coming quarters, Spain is still set to be one of the... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Flash CPI (Jul.) July’s unchanged reading for HICP inflation in Germany suggests that euro-zone inflation probably remained at 1.3% in July. German core inflation is set to creep higher over the rest of the year, but... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone will continue to impress The European economies are still in good shape, with the euro-zone benefitting from reduced political uncertainty and high levels of business and consumer confidence. We think that this strong... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German, French & Spanish Industrial Production (May) May’s industrial production data for Germany, France and Spain show that output rose sharply across the board. This suggests that overall economic growth in the euro-zone accelerated further in Q2... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investors cautious about secondary retail assets in Spain The yield spread between prime and secondary Spanish retail property has widened recently. With a slowdown in consumer spending on the cards, a cautious approach to secondary assets makes sense. 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish banks unlikely to hold back recovery Banco Popular’s difficulties jar with improving conditions elsewhere in Spain’s banking sector, so its forced sale does not appear to signal further trouble ahead and will not hold back the economic... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Low savings rate limits prospects for Spanish spending The weak outlook for real disposable income growth in Spain, combined with the fact that the savings rate is already low, suggests that household spending growth is unlikely to rebound following Q1’s... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Flash CPI (May) May’s declines in harmonised CPI inflation in Germany and Spain suggest that the euro-zone rate fell back from the ECB’s target of close to 2%. With core inflation subdued across the region, we doubt... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
