Europe Data Response German & Spanish Flash CPI (Nov.) November’s German and Spanish consumer prices data support expectations that euro-zone inflation reversed last month’s decline as energy inflation rose. But underlying price pressures are still... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Softly, softly...the ECB is tweaking its forward guidance Our reading of the minutes of the ECB’s October policy meeting is that the Bank has begun to prepare the ground for an end to its asset purchases. Before long, the ECB seems set to stop promising to... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Barcelona office outlook to brighten again next year Following the Spanish government’s decision to invoke Article 155 of the constitution and take control of the regional administration of Catalonia, the political temperature in the region has tempered... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Flash CPI (Oct.) October’s falls in German and Spanish consumer price inflation support the ECB’s view that its eurozone inflation goal is not yet in sight. While the strength of the economy should boost underlying... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Catalonia impasse is not a new euro-zone crisis We think that financial markets are right to take a relaxed view of the constitutional crisis in Catalonia. The economic fallout for Spain itself should be small, and the risks to the euro-zone are... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What next for Spain and Catalonia? The central Government in Madrid will now attempt to take direct administrative control of Catalonia following the region’s declaration of independence. We suspect that Madrid will achieve its aim of... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Catalan situation could still escalate further While Catalonia’s president avoided inflaming tensions with Madrid further in his speech yesterday, as long as the situation drags on there is likely to be some hit to business sentiment. Ultimately... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will other regions push for independence? After Catalonia’s vote, it seems unlikely that other Spanish regions will soon push for independence. But in Italy, later this month two regions are set to hold referendums aimed at achieving greater... 3rd October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Catalonia: What next? Despite the “yes” vote in yesterday’s independence referendum in Catalonia, there appears to be little chance that the region will secede from Spain in the coming months. We think the most likely... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Flash CPI (Sep.) September’s flash inflation data for Germany and Spain suggest that euro-zone inflation was probably unchanged from August’s 1.5%. And the likely falls in core inflation in both Germany and Spain... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Huge costs make Catalan independence unlikely A unilateral declaration of independence after October’s referendum could severely destabilise the economies of Catalonia and Spain. But given this, and the political and legal barriers to secession... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Trade, French & Spanish Industrial Production (Jul.) July’s data on German trade, as well as French and Spanish industrial production, provide some early hints that euro-zone GDP growth might slow a touch in Q3. But the continued strength of activity... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Flash CPI (Aug.) August’s increases in German and Spanish HICP inflation point to an increase in eurozone inflation to about 1.5%. But the relatively subdued rates of core inflation in both economies support the ECB’s... 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Spanish GDP Breakdown (Q2) The second release of Spanish GDP confirmed that quarterly growth edged up in Q2 due to stronger net trade. While we expect growth to slow in the coming quarters, Spain is still set to be one of the... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Flash CPI (Jul.) July’s unchanged reading for HICP inflation in Germany suggests that euro-zone inflation probably remained at 1.3% in July. German core inflation is set to creep higher over the rest of the year, but... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone will continue to impress The European economies are still in good shape, with the euro-zone benefitting from reduced political uncertainty and high levels of business and consumer confidence. We think that this strong... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
