Europe Rapid Response France, Italy & Spain HICP (June) Inflation figures for France, Italy and Spain suggest that euro-zone headline inflation edged down in June, while core and services inflation held broadly steady. This supports our view that the ECB... 28th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook On the mend The euro-zone has come out of a long period of stagnation and will expand at a moderate pace over the coming two years. The recovery will be faster in some southern economies, such as Spain, than in... 20th June 2024 · 28 mins read
Global Markets Update Political uncertainty to keep euro-zone spreads higher We expect political uncertainty in France to maintain a floor under government bond spreads in the near term, not only in France but also in other vulnerable euro-zone countries. Further ahead, we see... 19th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (June 2024) The latest data has been a bit stronger than we had anticipated and suggests that the recovery in euro-zone activity may continue at a moderate pace. The labour market remains tight, with unemployment... 10th June 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Spain logistics rent growth upgrade, but Madrid to trail Spanish industrial rent growth beat expectations in Q1 this year, outpacing rises elsewhere in the euro-zone. However, this was mainly due to Barcelona, where we have raised our prime rent forecast... 24th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone National-level GDP (Q1 2024) The national-level data released so far this morning suggest that euro-zone GDP, which will be published in just under an hour, will show an expansion of 0.3% q/q in Q1. 30th April 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Why are Spanish house prices rising? Spanish house prices have risen 5% over the last two years despite rising interest rates. The relative affordability of houses in Spain is the main reason that the market remains strong, but the... 25th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany State CPI (Mar.) The fall in CPI inflation in the major German states in March all but confirms that both German and euro-zone HICP inflation will come in lower than expected in March. This will please ECB... 2nd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spanish inflation to remain high in 2024 Data released today showed that Spanish inflation picked up from 2.9% in February to 3.2% in March. We think it is likely to increase further over the coming months due to base effects in energy... 27th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Germany not the only source of debt distress in Europe Recent media attention has focused on the downturn in Germany and the travails of its lenders exposed to the crash in property values both domestically and in the US. While the focus on Europe’s... 1st March 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus Have we reached the end of the housing correction? Housing markets in developed economies have perplexed forecasters since 2019. The boom in prices in 2020-22 was not anticipated, and the fall in prices since has been smaller than expected. In this... 14th February 2024 · 17 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Stronger supply cuts Madrid office outperformance A robust labour market will support Spanish office occupier demand to a greater extent than elsewhere in the euro-zone in the next few years. As a result, we think prime office rent growth will... 12th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Euro-zone set for years of austerity-lite After years of fiscal largesse, austerity is back. We suspect that budget cuts will reduce euro-zone GDP growth by only around 0.1 or 0.2 percentage points per year over the next five years. But the... 1st February 2024 · 15 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Debt burdens will constrain fiscal policy for years The goal of keeping government debt ratios stable or falling means that many euro-zone countries will need to tighten fiscal policy substantially and some will need to run primary budget surpluses for... 19th December 2023 · 16 mins read
