Europe Economics Update Italian deadlock set to continue The opening of Parliament on Friday will do little to lift the political uncertainty in Italy. Accordingly, a prolonged period of policy deadlock looks likely to fuel concerns over the outlook for... 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Italy really on autopilot? We are not fully convinced by the argument espoused by Mario Draghi that Italian fiscal policy is on “automatic pilot” and that the budget deficit will narrow regardless of who eventually takes power... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italian GDP (Q4), French Ind. Prod. & German Trade (Jan.) On balance, the latest batch of hard economic data from the euro-zone’s three largest economies makes fairly grim reading and casts further doubt on the view that the region as whole has begun to grow... 11th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What next for Italy? More than a week after the general election, the political situation in Italy remains as uncertain as ever. With potentially months of political and economic deadlock ahead, we continue to expect... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Political uncertainty to push Italy deeper into recession The Italian economy’s dire end to 2012, combined with the growing likelihood of a long period of political deadlock, supports our long-held view that the consensus outlook for Italy is too optimistic... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Has the Italian election disabled the ECB’s bazooka? The renewed rise in Italian and other government bond yields following the inconclusive result of the Italian general election has raised questions over the continued effectiveness of the European... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Political deadlock could push Italy towards a bail-out The inconclusive outcome of the Italian election looks set to prompt a renewed bout of market pressure which may eventually force Italy to request a support package from the euro-zone. 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Italy: After the election Even if the Italian general election results in the formation of a stable pro-reform Government, Italy’s huge underlying economic problems suggest that it may only be a matter of time before concerns... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone recession to deepen in 2013 While the lull in the euro-zone debt crisis has continued in recent months, the news on the region’s economy has remained distinctly downbeat. Despite some improvement towards the end of last year... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Monti’s declaration will not end political uncertainty Mario Monti’s widely expected decision to head a “centrist alliance” probably increases the chances of Italy continuing its reform process, but the political situation remains uncertain. What’s more... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will office rental values in Rome fall further than Milan? Recent falls in Italian office rental values are likely to be extended next year. But with a 10% drop in public sector jobs in the pipeline, occupier demand and thus rents, are likely to fall further... 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy back in the spotlight The intended resignation of Italian technocrat Prime Minister Mario Monti is a timely reminder thatthe euro-zone debt crisis still goes way beyond the problems of Greece. 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Trade/French & Italian Industrial Prod’n (Oct.) October’ trade and industrial production figures for the euro-zone’s largest three economies brought further evidence that the recession in the region will deepen in the fourth quarter and that it has... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How would exiting countries fare outside the euro-zone? Contrary to some suggestions, there are good reasons to think that, beyond the initial economic andfinancial disruption caused by an exit from the euro-zone, most of the current peripheral... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will core market property yields be immune to the downturn? Outside the peripheral markets, the economic downturn in the euro-zone has yet to have a material impact on commercial property values. Yet if the recession deepens as we anticipate, the next six... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What would a Spanish bail-out mean for Italy? A Spanish bail-out and subsequent ECB bond purchases may reinforce the perception that policymakers will provide similar support to Italy to keep its bond yields down too. But lower bond yields will... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
