Europe Economics Update Italy’s debt dynamics still look ugly Despite the recent upward revision to our forecast for Italian GDP growth, we still think that the Government’s budget deficit and debt forecasts are too sanguine. 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Returning confidence in the Italian property market premature Signs of a renaissance in Italy’s commercial property investment market appear to be heavily reliant on investors targeting distressed property. To the extent that most investors are unwilling to buy... 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italian Flash GDP (Q2) & Industrial Production (Jun.) Q2’s flash GDP release suggested that Italy’s deep recession is gradually easing. But an imminent and sustained period of growth still looks too much to hope for. 6th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update When will office rents in Milan and Paris turn the corner? In contrast to most euro-zone markets, the downturn in Milan and Paris office rental values was extended in the second quarter. The comparatively high level of rents in each market, the rising trend... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italian public finances remain in a precarious state We doubt that the new growth measures adopted by the Italian government will have much effect on the economy and still expect the 2013 budget deficit to be well above target. Based on this and Italy’s... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French & Italian Ind. Production (Apr.)/ Italian GDP (Q1) Italian GDP figures for Q1 confirmed that the economy remained in a broad-based recession and April’s fall in industrial production pointed to another contraction in Q2. Thankfully, French industrial... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1) Q1’s flash euro-zone GDP estimate confirmed that while the euro-zone economy performed rather better in Q1 than Q4, it remained in recession. 15th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Would deflation lead the periphery into a debt trap? If the peripheral euro-zone economies regained competitiveness via outright deflation, their public and private sector debt levels would spiral higher as a share of GDP, prompting disaster. 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy: New government, same challenges The formation of a grand coalition government in Italy is clearly a step forward, but we doubt that this marks a period of lasting political stability. In addition, despite calls from Prime Minister... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s problems are far from over The re-election of President Napolitano suggests that Italy could soon have a new government in place. But an end to the political deadlock will not resolve Italy’s deep economic problems. 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus GOEF crisis enters new phase Looming deadlines for stricken German open-ended funds to complete their liquidation processes – or hand over remaining assets to their respective custodian banks – mean that the supply of property... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook The crisis continues Recent events in Italy, Cyprus and Portugal have put a dent in hopes that the three-year crisis in the euro-zone is finally drawing to a close. Meanwhile, previous tentative signs that the broader... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can Italy shrug off its political deadlock? The recent news from Italy suggests that it could still be some time before a new government is in place. While there is little sign, for now at least, that this has damaged business and consumer... 2nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Mar.) Italy and Spain missed their 2012 deficit targets by a small margin and timelier data point to further likely slippage in the initial stages of this year. 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Where next for Italian property yields? Data for the final quarter of 2012 show that the upward trend in Italian office and retail property yields paused. Yet both the current political impasse and the poor outlook for occupier demand... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Mar.) & Italian Industrial Prod. (Jan.) March’s small rise in the German ZEW index left it at a high level. But as fears for Italy and Cyprus hit sentiment in future, we doubt that Germany’s recovery will be as strong as the survey now... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
