Europe Data Response French & Italian Industrial Production (May) The sharp falls in Italian and French industrial production in May were another sign that the sector’s recovery is already flagging before it has even really begun. 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook As good as it gets? While the European economic recovery probably picked up a bit of speed in the second quarter of the year, there are growing signs that Q2 was as good as it is likely to get. Activity indicators in the... 8th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Little relief in sight for Italian households May’s rise in Italy’s unemployment rate highlights the dire economic situation of households. And with inflation now slowing sharply, the country’s public debt ratio risks rising inexorably higher. 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can Italy really stop its debt rising? Contrary to official forecasts, Italy’s huge public debt is unlikely to fall over the coming years. Given the size of the economy, this will leave not only Italy in a very precarious position, but... 25th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Peripheral industry on its feet but not ready to run Industrial production is now expanding faster in the euro-zone’s periphery than in the core. While this reflects progress made towards restructuring in the peripheral economies, industry still faces... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French & Italian Ind. Production (Apr.)/ Italian GDP (Q1) Today’s Italian Q1 GDP breakdown and industrial production data suggested that the economy might return to growth in Q2. But France’s latest industrial production figures show that the recovery there... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Fragile recovery hampering Italy's belt tightening The unexpected drop in Italy’s GDP in Q1 underlines the fragility of the country’s recovery and further undermines attempts to bring down its crushing public debt load. 20th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly German engine can’t power euro-zone recovery While the German economy expanded by an impressive 0.8% in Q1, this failed to spur growth elsewhere in the euro-zone and the region's GDP rose by just 0.2%. Possible explanations for this are the fact... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are Milan office rents poised to recover? In the past few quarters, modest gains in services employment have helped to put a floor under Milan office rents. But the most recent employment expectations data have weakened and we doubt that the... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Negative rates are no silver bullet on their own A negative interest rate on banks' excess reserves at the ECB might have some effect on banks' behaviour and at least prove that the ECB is prepared to follow its dovish words with action. But it must... 21st April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Italian office capital values look set to fall further The low level of confidence in the Italian service sector throughout 2013 is consistent with the underperformance of office capital values versus retail. But while services confidence has since risen... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Deflation dangers persist The recovery in the European economy appears to have picked up a bit of speed in the early months of 2014. The euro-zone now looks set to expand by 1% or more this year, a significant improvement on... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What do jobs data imply for the peripheral occupier markets? Since the crisis, employment in the periphery has underperformed the euro-zone average. But recent data does at least show some positives for Portugal. And while sustained employment growth in Spain... 4th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Veneto vote highlights Italy and EU policy challenges While the continuing independence vote in Italy’s Veneto region may prove of little direct importance, the poll highlights the breadth of challenges facing Mr Renzi’s new Government and the difficulty... 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Renzi's recent reforms are the easy part The measures announced by the Italian PM yesterday represent a valuable short-term stimulus to the economy. But they also raise the cost of failing to implement more difficult structural reforms later... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italian GDP (Q4) Italy exited its long recession in Q4. But the recovery will struggle to gather enough steam this year to erode the country’s crushing public debt load. 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
