Europe Economics Update Italy’s stagnation may soon turn to recession Italy’s economic recovery is slowing. And with big risks to the near-term outlook from the banking sector and the forthcoming referendum on constitutional reform, we suspect that the economy is... 15th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How big a threat are Italy’s banks? Italian banks are in trouble and there are no quick fixes for their problems. We think that policymakers will provide support to lenders this year, but this is unlikely to resolve banks’ underlying... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weakening Italian economy to hit office rental growth Office rental growth in Italy is set to be negatively affected by a slowdown in the Italian economy, including weaker employment growth. And coupled with political uncertainty, the office market looks... 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update After Brexit, will Quitaly be next? Italian opposition to the EU is strong and several forces could cause that hostility to grow. October’s constitutional reform referendum will provide voters with an opportunity to oust the prime... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Retail rental growth to cool in Italy Retail rents in Milan and Rome rose sharply last year. But a slowdown in the Italian economy and consumer spending growth over the coming years will mean that rental growth now eases back. 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French & Italian Industrial Production (Apr.) April’s increases in French and Italian industrial production support the message from Germany that the sector had a decent month. But growth still looks set to slow in Q2 and over the rest of the... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s recovery losing speed The European Commission’s measure of economic sentiment in Italy suggests that the recovery might have gained some pace in Q2. However, April’s increase in unemployment and other, more reliable... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Has the EC become more lenient on fiscal policy? On the face of it, last week’s decisions by the European Commission to allow Italy greater flexibility in its budget, and not to fine Spain and Portugal for their large deficits, suggest that it has... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Mounting risks bode ill for Italy Like much of the rest of the euro-zone, Italy’s economy got off to a decent start to the year. However,the outlook for growth remains weak and the risks to the recovery are mounting. Eventually... 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can Italy’s recovery continue? After years of recession, the Italian economy returned to growth last year and further policy support could see the recovery pick up slightly in 2016. But there has been little improvement in the... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French & Italian Industrial Production (Dec.) December’s weak industrial production data from France and Italy showed that the sector is still struggling and add to the risk that euro-zone GDP growth slowed in Q4. 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Industrial rents in Milan set for steady growth The high level of industrial take-up in Italy over the past two years demonstrates the strong effect that e-commerce has had on occupier demand. With the Italian economy now on a positive, albeit... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Has Italy really been the biggest beneficiary of QE? Recent suggestions that Italy has gained the most from QE paint a pretty bleak picture of the policy’s effectiveness. As it happens, we are not convinced that Italy has been the biggest winner. Either... 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s economy likely to continue to disappoint Today’s Italian GDP data were disappointing and we expect the economy to continue to grow at a fairly slow pace. As a result, the government debt-to-GDP ratio is unlikely to fall over the coming years... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French & Italian Industrial Production (Sep.) September’s industrial production data from France and Italy added to the evidence that euro-zone industrial growth might have slowed in Q3 from its already weak pace. 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Italy’s labour market recovery continue? Italy’s labour market has shown some strong signs of improvement since the summer, but we suspect that this is unlikely to last. Reduced tax incentives for hiring, as well as sluggish economic growth... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
