Europe Commercial Property Update Jump in Milan office rents unlikely to be sustained Prime office rents in Milan recorded their biggest quarterly gain since 2008 in Q1, with a lack of quality space a key driver. But with completions starting to rise, we don’t expect this to be... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Outlook has brightened despite political risk The euro-zone has continued to perform very well and we now expect growth to be stronger than the consensus forecast this year and next. Inflation has been lower than we had assumed, meaning that... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Slow office rental growth in Milan set to continue The Italian economy has started the year on a strong footing. But GDP and employment growth are expected to slow this year. Combined with a rise in completions, that will act as a brake on the pace of... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What is the state of play as election season kicks off? Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte described last week’s election as the “quarter finals to beat the wrong sort of populism”. The forthcoming French presidential election will be the semi-final, and the... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What if Italy left the euro-zone? If Italy left the euro-zone, we think that its new currency would depreciate by about 30% against the euro. In the year or so following its exit, the economy would probably contract sharply, but we... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italy GDP (Q4), Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jan.) & Final PMIs (Feb.) Retail sales fell again in January and quarterly growth is likely to be weak in Q1. While Italy’s economy slowed in Q4, the PMI points to a pick-up this quarter. 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone PMIs consistent with stronger growth Last week’s PMI survey brought some more good news for the euro-zone economy. Accordingly, due to expectations of stronger growth in Q1, we have revised up our GDP forecast for 2017. While the survey... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italian banks still a major concern There are some tentative signs of improvement in the Italian banking sector, but it will be a very long time until the country’s lenders look healthy. So the banks will remain a risk to the economic... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should we worry about an election in Italy? Former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s decision to call a Democratic Party leadership contest reduces the chance of an early general election this summer. But an election could still take place later in... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets’ fears over Le Pen outweigh hopes for Macron Marine Le Pen’s announcement of her radical vision for France, particularly her intentions for an exit from the European Union and the euro, unnerved euro-zone financial markets last week. Her main... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French & Italian Industrial Production (Dec.) The decline in French industrial production in December marked a weak end to 2016, echoing falls in a number of other euro-zone countries. But Italian industry put in an unexpectedly strong... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How worrying is Italy’s widening Target2 deficit? Italy’s widening Target2 imbalance suggests that investors are reducing their exposure to Italy. And capital outflows may well rise in the run-up to a general election, which could happen this year. 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What do Trump’s latest comments mean for Europe? The US President-elect’s perceived attempts to talk the dollar down and threat to impose tariffs on BMW imports to the US have limited implications for the euro-zone’s export prospects. But his... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone back in the spotlight in 2017 The European economies have continued to fare relatively well, with euro-zone growth in particular supported by a weaker currency and low inflation. However, a temporary surge in inflation this year... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Little cause for optimism on prospects for Italian retail rents A weak economy means that prime rents in the Milan and Rome retail markets are more likely to stagnate this year than to repeat 2015’s sharp increase. We have pencilled in modest increases in rental... 16th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Dec.) November’s data brought further signs of public finances improving in the euro-zone’s periphery. But the Greek bail-out deal is at risk of collapse, and the Italian banking sector remains in a parlous... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
