Europe Economics Update What do political developments mean for Italy’s economy? On the face of it, the Five Star Movement’s poor showing in recent local elections bodes well for pro-euro parties and Italy’s economy. However, the chance of an early election has fallen, so... 12th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italian GDP Breakdown (Q1) The upward revision to Italy’s GDP in Q1 is not as encouraging as it first appears. And with the chance of an early election rising, Italy’s already-weak economy looks vulnerable to the rise of euro... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italian GDP (Q1) & Dutch GDP (Q1) The first estimate of Italian Q1 GDP showed that the economy grew more slowly than the euro-zone as a whole. With growth likely to remain fairly subdued, the economy remains vulnerable, perhaps most... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Italy be the next domino not to fall? Anti-euro parties probably have a better chance of forming a government in Italy than in France. The election of an Italian eurosceptic government would not spell immediate disaster, but risks to the... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack A rising tide lifts all boats Survey data suggest that economic momentum among the major euro-zone economies has converged in 2017. Indeed, in April the spread between the Composite PMIs for Germany, France, Italy and Spain was... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Jump in Milan office rents unlikely to be sustained Prime office rents in Milan recorded their biggest quarterly gain since 2008 in Q1, with a lack of quality space a key driver. But with completions starting to rise, we don’t expect this to be... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Outlook has brightened despite political risk The euro-zone has continued to perform very well and we now expect growth to be stronger than the consensus forecast this year and next. Inflation has been lower than we had assumed, meaning that... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Slow office rental growth in Milan set to continue The Italian economy has started the year on a strong footing. But GDP and employment growth are expected to slow this year. Combined with a rise in completions, that will act as a brake on the pace of... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What is the state of play as election season kicks off? Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte described last week’s election as the “quarter finals to beat the wrong sort of populism”. The forthcoming French presidential election will be the semi-final, and the... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What if Italy left the euro-zone? If Italy left the euro-zone, we think that its new currency would depreciate by about 30% against the euro. In the year or so following its exit, the economy would probably contract sharply, but we... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italy GDP (Q4), Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jan.) & Final PMIs (Feb.) Retail sales fell again in January and quarterly growth is likely to be weak in Q1. While Italy’s economy slowed in Q4, the PMI points to a pick-up this quarter. 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone PMIs consistent with stronger growth Last week’s PMI survey brought some more good news for the euro-zone economy. Accordingly, due to expectations of stronger growth in Q1, we have revised up our GDP forecast for 2017. While the survey... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italian banks still a major concern There are some tentative signs of improvement in the Italian banking sector, but it will be a very long time until the country’s lenders look healthy. So the banks will remain a risk to the economic... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should we worry about an election in Italy? Former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s decision to call a Democratic Party leadership contest reduces the chance of an early general election this summer. But an election could still take place later in... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets’ fears over Le Pen outweigh hopes for Macron Marine Le Pen’s announcement of her radical vision for France, particularly her intentions for an exit from the European Union and the euro, unnerved euro-zone financial markets last week. Her main... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French & Italian Industrial Production (Dec.) The decline in French industrial production in December marked a weak end to 2016, echoing falls in a number of other euro-zone countries. But Italian industry put in an unexpectedly strong... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
