Europe Economics Weekly Would a “flat tax” give Italy’s economy a boost? Two of the leading contenders to form a government after Italy’s general election on 4th March advocate a radical overhaul of the country’s tax code. Their plans would result in a substantial... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would Italian politicians really pull Italy out of the euro? Italy’s general election in March looks likely to produce a fragmented government with eurosceptic tendencies. We don’t think that it will pull Italy out of the euro-zone, but it may cause yields to... 8th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italy GDP (Q3, Breakdown) In Q3, Italy’s economy grew more slowly than the euro-zone as a whole for the ninth straight quarter. Timelier activity surveys suggest that growth will pick up a little in the run-up to next year’s... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italian banks are on the mend, but recovery will be slow Italy’s banks are on the mend, but it will be a very long time before they get a clean bill of health. As long as they remain weak, the economic recovery will be vulnerable to a loss of confidence in... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the Italian economy finally turning a corner? This year, the Italian economy looks set to record its best performance since 2010. And we doubt that uncertainty in the run-up to next year’s general election will bring the recovery to a halt. But... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Softer services activity is no cause for alarm The latest euro-zone data have brought signs of a slowdown in activity in the services sector compared to that in manufacturing. But we suspect that the slowdown in services will be modest. After all... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French & Italian Industrial Production (Sep.) Today’s French and Italian industrial production data, along with other national data released earlier in the week, suggest that euro-zone output fell by 0.6% in September. But forward-looking... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French & Italian Ind. Prod. & German Trade (Aug.) The unexpected softness of French industrial production in August suggests that industry weighed on France’s GDP growth in the third quarter and contrasted with the robust Italian data. Meanwhile... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Italy no longer a risk? Italy’s eurosceptic parties have recently eased up on their most anti-euro rhetoric, but it is far too early to sound the all clear. With the banking sector weak, public debt very high and the economy... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italian GDP Breakdown (Q2) & Greek GDP (Q2) Italy’s economy is improving steadily, but is likely to continue growing more slowly than the euro-zone as a whole. This leaves it vulnerable to losses of confidence, perhaps sparked by concerns about... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are Italy’s banks ready to support the economic recovery? Italy’s banking sector has seen signs of improvement this year. But it is a long way from full health, so the country’s lenders are unlikely to contribute significantly to the economic recovery any... 14th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Ten years on, is the euro-zone out of the woods? Ten years ago this week marked the start of the global financial crisis and a challenging time for the euro-zone economy. In many respects, the euro-zone finally appears to be out of the woods. Growth... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How big a worry is euroscepticism in Italy? The latest Eurobarometer survey suggested that Italy is one of the most eurosceptic members of the single currency. While there are reasons why an Italian exit from the euro over the next few years is... 7th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone will continue to impress The European economies are still in good shape, with the euro-zone benefitting from reduced political uncertainty and high levels of business and consumer confidence. We think that this strong... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italian bank rescue raises long-term concerns While the state aid granted to two regional Italian lenders over the weekend has reduced the risks to the Italian economy in the near term, it shows that the so-called “doom loop” between the banking... 27th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Portugal continue to outperform Italy? Portugal’s economy has outperformed Italy’s in recent years as easing austerity, progress with labour reforms and improvements in competitiveness have all borne fruit. We expect this to continue. 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
