Europe Economic Outlook Low growth, low inflation, low rates We expect economic growth in the euro-zone to remain sluggish. This is partly due to adverse demographics and structural forces hampering the competitiveness of industry. But past monetary tightening... 16th December 2024 · 28 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of contagion risks in EZ bond markets The probable imminent collapse of the French government is not having much impact on bond markets elsewhere in the euro-zone. And we think contagion risks will remain limited, as long as the monetary... 3rd December 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy budget: better than France but concerns remain Italy’s 2025 budget, set to be approved by cabinet today, suggests Italy will bring its deficit below the 3% of GDP limit imposed by EU fiscal rules much sooner than France. But Italy’s debt-to-GDP... 15th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Economy slowing again The euro-zone appears to have lost some momentum and is likely to remain sluggish in the coming quarters. The core economies are the weakest, led by Germany which is probably in another technical... 18th September 2024 · 28 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Milan office rent growth to undershoot the euro-zone Milan office take-up has held up well in recent quarters, but this has not translated into stronger prime rental growth. With the outlook for jobs growth pointing to a slowdown in take-up while... 11th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update No Olympic truce for French and other EZ spreads While the recent financial market meltdown has pushed some euro-zone government bond spreads up, we don’t see good reasons for risk sentiment to remain so downbeat. So we expect the upward pressure on... 6th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Focus EZ spreads on different paths after French election We have revised down our forecasts for government bond spreads in Spain and Portugal, but we continue to think that those in France, as well as in Italy and Belgium, are more likely to rise than fall. 31st July 2024 · 14 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone National-level GDP (Q2 2024) National-level data released so far suggests that euro-zone GDP growth slowed to 0.2% q/q in Q2 and the weakening of the surveys in July suggests GDP growth may have eased further this quarter. 30th July 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy still spending NGEU money too slowly Italy has become quicker at spending NextGenerationEU (NGEU) funds over the past year but it is still likely to spend only around two-thirds of the total funds allocated to it unless the programme is... 29th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Ageing population to weigh on EZ labour market Net immigration to euro-zone countries will probably be higher than the UN assumes in its latest population forecasts. But we still think the working age population will decline over the coming decade... 25th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response France, Italy & Spain HICP (June) Inflation figures for France, Italy and Spain suggest that euro-zone headline inflation edged down in June, while core and services inflation held broadly steady. This supports our view that the ECB... 28th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Excessive deficits; lessons from Italy’s 2018 mini crisis The European Commission this week announced its intention to put five euro-zone countries, including France and Italy, into Excessive Deficit Procedures. This will concentrate investors’ minds on the... 21st June 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook On the mend The euro-zone has come out of a long period of stagnation and will expand at a moderate pace over the coming two years. The recovery will be faster in some southern economies, such as Spain, than in... 20th June 2024 · 28 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (June 2024) The latest data has been a bit stronger than we had anticipated and suggests that the recovery in euro-zone activity may continue at a moderate pace. The labour market remains tight, with unemployment... 10th June 2024 · 1 min read
