Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Apr.) The collapse in April’s Economic Sentiment Indicators to levels not recorded before in Central and Eastern Europe point to GDP falling by around 6.0% y/y at the start of Q2, more than twice as large... 29th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How much will labour markets suffer? The coronavirus crisis is likely to cause unemployment rates to jump by 5%-points or so across most of the region in Q2 and we think the labour market fallout could be much worse in Turkey. However... 28th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Long-lasting economic damage We estimate that aggregate EM GDP will shrink by 4% this year, by far the worst outturn since reliable records began in 1960. The recovery will be fitful, with output at an aggregate level likely to... 28th April 2020 · 26 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Futile lira defence, CEE bond purchases Turkish policymakers’ efforts to prevent the lira from slipping through 7/$ will prove futile and, with the chances of an IMF deal slim, the government has turned to import compression to counter... 24th April 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs would suffer from a drop in remittances? Remittances held up well during the Global Financial Crisis but the scale (and type) of job losses in the current crisis mean that they are likely to fall sharply in the coming months. A drop in... 24th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Deepest contraction since the collapse of communism Emerging Europe will experience its largest decline in real GDP this year since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The aggressive policy response across Central Europe and the ability of the... 23rd April 2020 · 18 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The oil market rout, devaluations and defaults Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf countries should be able to weather the collapse in oil prices without abandoning dollar pegs, and Russia will still run looser fiscal policy this year than last. But... 22nd April 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor While emerging markets suffered large net portfolio investment outflows in March, the very latest data suggest that the pace of outflows eased in the first half of April. Meanwhile, it appears that... 21st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish markets under pressure, but resilient elsewhere The Turkish lira has been the ugly duckling of EM currencies this month as fears grow over the country’s coronavirus outbreak and poor external position. Turkish banks’ short-term external debts are... 17th April 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Debt moratorium, IMF SLL small steps in right direction The agreement by the G20 to allow the world’s poorest nations to suspend bilateral debt servicing will help to ease short-term balance of payments strains in much of Africa, most notably Angola, but... 17th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lockdowns may not be effective in all EMs Lockdowns have proved successful at limiting the spread of coronavirus in the likes of China, Korea and the Czech Republic, but they are likely to be less effective in poorer countries – notably much... 15th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will Turkey turn to the IMF? The damage to Turkey’s economy from the coronavirus outbreak has led to suggestions that the government may turn to the IMF for a financing package, but the political backdrop means that this would... 15th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks: where do the risks lie? Non-performing loans are likely to climb in many EMs as output and incomes collapse, potentially forcing policymakers in some countries to step in and recapitalise banks. The risks are greatest in... 9th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Coronavirus developments, Turkey and the IMF Governments in parts of the region have had some success in slowing the spread of the coronavirus, notably in Poland and the Czech Republic where some lockdown measures are now being eased. But there... 9th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Economies in a stronger position to weather a new crisis Economies across Emerging Europe are heading for a sharp contraction in output, but one crumb of comfort is that vulnerabilities are drastically lower than they were in the run-up to the Global... 9th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The coronavirus crisis & EM public debt We think that most EM governments will increase the size of their fiscal support packages, which will cause public debt ratios to jump. For many of the poorest EMs, this will be supported by... 9th April 2020 · 3 mins read
