Emerging Markets Economics Update Lockdowns, infection rates and the EM recovery Large parts of Emerging Asia have controlled the virus exceptionally well, which should allow activity to recover quicker than in most other EMs. In contrast, many countries in Latin America are still... 26th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s temporary reprieve, EU budget proposals Financial support for Turkey unveiled by Qatar and Japan this week reduce the immediate threat of another currency crisis. But the funds being provided pale into comparison with Turkey’s external... 22nd May 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Apr.) The collapse in the Polish industrial production and retail sales data for April were partially offset by higher public spending on large infrastructure projects in the construction sector. This... 22nd May 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Tracker suggests that net capital outflows from EMs eased markedly last month. And daily data suggest that outflows have remained relatively modest so far in May. One country which is still... 20th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Benefits of sovereign default more compelling than ever Recent reports suggest that governments of some low-income countries are reluctant to restructure debts owed to private creditors for fear of losing market access and pushing up future borrowing costs... 18th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s external hit, Karlsruhe ruling, Russia’s lockdown Strains in Turkey’s balance of payments persist and recent developments have done little to alter our view that the risk of another currency crisis is rising. Meanwhile, a ruling last week by the... 15th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey and the rising risk of (another) currency crisis The huge hit to Turkey’s balance of payments position from the coronavirus crisis and the evaporation of investors’ confidence in policymakers makes the risk of a currency crisis like that seen in... 11th May 2020 · 18 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Interpret incoming GDP & CPI data with a pinch of salt With the incoming economic data likely to be less reliable than usual, we think that investors should focus more on the timely low-level activity data and the changing shape of infection curves to... 11th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Putin in peril, CEE Q1 GDP The failure of the Russian authorities to contain the coronavirus outbreak and the lack of urgency with which policymakers have stepped up fiscal support has made us increasingly concerned about a... 7th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policy responses: the good, the bad and the ugly A worrying divergence is emerging in the policy response across the region. Policymakers in Central Europe imposed lockdown measures early which have succeeded in containing the outbreak. And the... 5th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs confirm manufacturing meltdown The drop in the EM manufacturing PMI to 42.7 in April confirms that industry is collapsing in Q2. Even though industry will bounce back in the EMs starting to ease lockdown measures, the weakness of... 4th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The lowdown on EM lockdowns In those EMs that were quick to control their coronavirus outbreaks (South Africa, Poland, Vietnam), lockdowns are being eased which will allow activity to gradually recover. But the damage from... 4th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) April’s manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Europe fell off a cliff and point to industrial production declining at a record pace in Q2. With lockdown measures being lifted activity in The Czech Republic... 4th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Storm brewing in Turkey, Czech easing restrictions The coronavirus is having a significant impact on Turkey’s balance of payments and, while the lira broke through 7/$ today, efforts to defend the currency are far from over. This risks a much larger... 1st May 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Many EMs still have a lot of work to do The good news is that a handful of the early responders to Covid-19, including Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and the Czech Republic, have successfully flattened their infection curves. As life starts to get... 29th April 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Early signs point to steep economic downturn There are encouraging signs that the authorities in Central Europe have brought the virus under control and policymakers are slowly starting to ease lockdown measures, which will support a recovery in... 29th April 2020 · 12 mins read
