Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: rate cuts are in view Stubbornly high inflation and concerns about a weaker exchange rate mean that Hungary’s central bank (MNB) will keep its powder dry in the next few months. But we think that inflation will ease over... 5th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update The future for city property In our Future of Property research, we identified important post-pandemic shifts in most real estate sectors. How these trends interact will be key to the outlook for the urban locations where most... 4th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of the protests in Russia The waves of protests that have taken place across Russia in recent weeks pose the biggest challenge to President Putin in close to a decade and have put a risk premium on the ruble. The government is... 4th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update FX intervention: echoes of “currency wars” The announcement of FX purchase programmes by several EM central banks has evoked comparisons with the “currency wars” that followed the Global Financial Crisis. One lesson from this period is that FX... 4th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Sharper falls in Warsaw office rents to come in 2021 Given its significant office supply pipeline, we have revised down our rental forecast for Warsaw offices this year despite a recovery in the labour market. And while we expect rents to pick up in... 3rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jan.) Turkey’s headline inflation rate rose again in January and may edge up a little further in the next few months, but we think that the central bank has probably done enough to convince investors that... 3rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q4 2020) The surprise 0.3% q/q growth in Czech GDP in Q4 was much better than expected as strength in industry more than offset weakness in services. This suggests that, despite being hit hard by a renewed... 2nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (2020) The full-year decline in Russian GDP of 3.1% in 2020 suggests that the economy expanded slightly in Q4 as the authorities opted for light-touch containment measures in response to the second virus... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The manufacturing PMIs for January were encouraging in Turkey and Russia and strong export performance continued to support Poland’s manufacturing sector. That said, there are further signs that... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly EU vaccine row, MNB asset purchases, CBRT impresses The risk of a large shortfall in COVID-19 vaccine deliveries to the EU threatens to delay the recovery that we had expected in Emerging Europe during the first half of this year. While the central... 29th January 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (2020) The 2.8% decline in Polish GDP over 2020 was the worst performance since the collapse of communism and is consistent with the economy contracting by around 1.3% q/q in Q4. While prolonged containment... 29th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Dec.) Polish activity data for December showed that industry continued to boom and the easing of virus restrictions supported a rebound in retail sales, with the result being that any contraction in GDP... 25th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s FDI slump, NS2 in danger, hawkish CBRT The slump in FDI inflows to a 26-year low in Russia last year underline how bleak the country's medium-term growth prospects are. With the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline looking in greater danger of being... 22nd January 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack A bumpy and uneven recovery Russia and Poland have been regional outperformers in recent months due the relatively light-touch containment measures in the former and the strength of export-orientated sectors in the latter. But... 22nd January 2021 · 11 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor We doubt Chinese equities are in a bubble The valuations of Chinese equities have risen considerably over the past few months. But we don’t think that they are yet in a big bubble that is bound to burst soon. 19th January 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s vaccine drive, Turkey’s recovery teeters Vaccination programmes gathered pace across the region this week and the Hungarian government's decision to side-step the EU and procure vaccines independently could allow containment measures to be... 15th January 2021 · 6 mins read
