Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian ruble under pressure, Central Europe recovery The ratcheting up in geopolitical tensions in Russia this week amid concerns about the use of a chemical nerve agent is a warning sign for the ruble and further falls in the currency are likely to lie... 4th September 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rising virus cases not a major threat to the recovery New daily coronavirus cases have hit record highs across Central and Eastern Europe over the past month and authorities have responded by tightening restrictions at a local level. Health systems in... 2nd September 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs provide more evidence of uneven recovery The further rise in the EM manufacturing PMI to a nine-year high of 52.5 in August, from 51.4 in July, suggests that the EM recovery continued in the middle of Q3. But the rebound has been uneven... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The batch of manufacturing PMIs across Emerging Europe for August provided further signs that the economic rebound continued in Q3. Industrial sectors are likely to recover further over the coming... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Fragile EU-Turkey relations, MNB in a bind The Turkish central bank's tightening of monetary conditions has helped to stabilise the lira but the further ratcheting up of tensions with the EU and threat of measures beyond sanctions mean that... 28th August 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.) The further increase in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for August echoes the message from other surveys and high-frequency data that the recovery gained pace in Q3. But sentiment remains far... 28th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Belarus becoming a thorn in Russia’s side Political instability in Belarus has prompted speculation about how President Putin will respond to calm the situation. Mr. Putin is working to maintain close ties with Belarus, but the more that the... 27th August 2020 · 16 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug) Our Tracker suggests that EMs experienced net capital inflows last month for the first time since the coronavirus crisis began. Daily data suggest that net capital inflows were generally sustained in... 26th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack First waves still the big concern A handful of countries in East Asia and Eastern Europe (notably Korea and Poland) are suffering from rising coronavirus cases again, but the hit to activity there resulting from precautionary consumer... 25th August 2020 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s gas discovery & budget deficit, crisis in Belarus Turkey's discovery of gas in the Black Sea will provide some boost to the country's balance of payments, but its might be quickly eroded if the authorities use this as an opportunity to loosen policy... 21st August 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Five points on the latest EM coronavirus numbers Emerging markets account for the majority of new global coronavirus cases each day (see Chart 1) and, while containment measures may be tightened sporadically, these are generally likely to be... 21st August 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jul.) The batch of Russian activity data for July suggest that the economy gained a bit of momentum at the start of Q3 following the 8.5% y/y fall in GDP in Q2 as retail sales continued to rebound. But the... 20th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Taking stock of Q2 GDP and the recovery so far The latest Q2 GDP figures show diverging depths of downturns between EMs (outside China), which can largely be explained by differences in the severity of virus outbreaks and the stringency of... 20th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging Europe: Virus impact starting to be felt Consistent with the sharp fall in economic activity, occupier demand weakened further in Q2. And with bargaining power shifting to the tenant, rental falls were also evident in many markets, with the... 20th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports facing greater headwinds EM goods exports rebounded reasonably strongly in June and July but, with the global recovery showing signs of losing momentum, further gains from here are likely to be slow-going. 19th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Lira intervention, Russia’s vaccine, CEE inflation Turkey's central bank has acted swiftly to tighten monetary conditions to shore up the lira and they would continue on this path if strains in the balance of payments were to flare up again. Meanwhile... 14th August 2020 · 6 mins read
