Capital Daily We don’t expect rising inflation to lead to EM currency strength Despite rising inflation, we continue to think that most emerging market (EM) central banks will tighten policy more slowly than investors currently expect. 9th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from emerging markets have eased over the past few weeks and Turkey and India (which suffered large outflows in April and May) have started to see renewed inflows. Even if... 9th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Supply shortages and EM inflation risks Supply-related price pressures are building, particularly in Central Europe and parts of East Asia. And while the factors behind this should prove temporary, output gaps in the most-affected countries... 9th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Hawkish CEE policy shift to push up property yields Our expectation for more aggressive monetary tightening in Central and Eastern Europe and the subsequent upward pressure on bond yields mean that we now expect property yields to rise by more from... 7th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: inflation a growing risk as economies re-open Price pressures in Central Europe are building from a broad range of sources and, while most of these are likely to be temporary, the issue is that countries were experiencing stubbornly high... 2nd June 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland and Hungary Q1 outperformance to continue The breakdown of Q1 GDP data showed that strong domestic demand supported expansions in Hungary and Poland, despite severe virus waves, whereas another fall in household spending held back Czechia’s... 1st June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Lira touches new low, CEE bond yield divergence It's been a rocky week for the Turkish lira amid more changes at the central bank and political upheaval regarding a possible link between politicians and organised crime. This, coming alongside high... 28th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (May) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators showed strong increases in most countries in May, largely driven by improvements in services sentiment as economies have started to re-open. This is likely to be... 28th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation risks build, central banks start to react The strength of inflation and expectations for a strong economic recovery have prompted a clear hawkish shift among Central European central banks. We think it will take time for a majority in favour... 27th May 2021 · 15 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging Europe: Re-opening won’t stop values falling The fall in all-property rents, dragged down by office and retail sectors, meant that annual capital value growth remained in negative territory in Q1, despite the surprise fall in yields. Looking... 26th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s policy shift, Turkey’s tight fiscal stance Guidance from Hungary's central bank this week suggests that it is taking the fight against inflation much more seriously and we now think that a monetary tightening cycle will start over the coming... 21st May 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2021) The Q1 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe revealed a divergence in performance between the regions’ economies amid third virus waves, with Hungary and Romania outperforming. With virus situations... 18th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel-Gaza conflict, CEE inflation spike The experience of the conflict between Israel and Hamas in 2014 suggests that the economic impact of the current conflict may be limited and temporary. So long as it ends soon, we still expect a... 14th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The latest on the virus and vaccines The sharp fall in virus cases and increase in the rate of vaccinations since March means that a sustained economic recovery in Central and Eastern Europe looks set to begin over the coming months. But... 12th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s recovery plan, hawkish central banks in CEE Poland submitted its recovery and resilience plan to the European Commission over the past week and, while the plan to boost long-term growth looks ambitious, it should make a major contribution... 7th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) April’s robust manufacturing PMIs for Czechia and Poland were artificially boosted by longer supplier delivery times and there were further signs that supply chain issues have caused price pressures... 4th May 2021 · 2 mins read
