Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Recoveries entering a slower phase, China an exception The latest activity and mobility data indicate that the EM recovery has lost some steam in recent months and we expect the pace of recovery to remain slow-going in the coming quarters. The main... 30th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Taking stock of EM financial conditions EM financial conditions have tightened a little in recent weeks, although only in Turkey does this threaten to become a significant headwind to growth. Elsewhere, conditions remain very loose but the... 29th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) The further rise in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for September suggests that the recovery continued this month, albeit at a slower pace. However, we suspect that the recent rise in virus... 29th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Taking stock of the latest EM virus trends Most EMs in Latin America, Africa and South Asia that were battling worryingly large virus outbreaks appear to have passed the peak in recent weeks. That should allow a gradual scaling back of... 29th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Tightening in Hungary and Turkey, Poland’s ‘fur crisis’ Concerns about currency falls and the inflation outlook prompted central banks in Hungary and Turkey to raise interest rates this week but while we think this will ultimately be reversed in Hungary... 25th September 2020 · 5 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: The tables turn on retail While economic growth is expected to continue to recover over the second half of the year, albeit at a slower pace than initially post-lockdown, it won’t be the end of falls in Emerging European... 25th September 2020 · 19 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Recovery now in a tougher phase After an initial burst of growth following the lifting of national lockdowns, the latest activity data and mobility indicators point to a slower pace of recovery in most EMs in recent months. This... 24th September 2020 · 12 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM food inflation set to ease A number of EMs – notably Brazil, Mexico and Korea – have experienced strong increases in food inflation in recent months, which have pushed up headline rates. But we think that food inflation in the... 24th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Rising cases threaten the recovery in Central Europe The speed and size of the rise in new coronavirus cases in parts of Central and Eastern Europe is now starting to challenge our optimism about the strength of the recovery. The Czech Republic, Hungary... 24th September 2020 · 16 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish lira, Russia’s vaccine, virus cases in Hungary The pressure on the Turkish lira this week as the risk of EU sanctions continued to rise has prompted a further tightening of monetary conditions, but an outright hike to policy rates at next week’s... 18th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Export recovery will be a long slog The rebound in EM exports continued in July, but further gains will be harder to come by from here. Indeed, the initial boost from re-opening economies is likely to fade and the slowing global... 17th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Tracker suggests that last month EMs suffered the largest net outflow of capital since the height of the market turmoil in March. Net outflows look set to persist in the coming months, although... 16th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s resilient GDP, virus cases grabbing headlines The breakdown of Russian Q2 GDP released this week showed that the economy's sectoral structure helped to cushion the fall in output from the pandemic. More recently, there have been encouraging signs... 11th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will EMs gain from China’s strong recovery? China’s strong economic recovery is likely to provide more of a support to the recovery in (non-oil) commodity producers in Latin America and Africa than it will in the rest of Asia. But we don’t... 10th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM easing cycles: revisiting lessons from the GFC The experience of the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) chimes with our EM rates view on two counts. The first is that easing cycles in many EMs are now at an end (Brazil) or will draw to... 9th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Spate of financial crises avoided, but hangovers loom Most major EMs have managed to avoid acute balance of payments, banking sector and sovereign debt problems so far this year. But pockets of vulnerability remain. In particular, the risk of another... 4th September 2020 · 8 mins read
