Emerging Europe Chart Pack Recovery takes hold and inflation pressures build Economic activity across Emerging Europe is rebounding strongly now that virus waves have passed and restrictions have been lifted. The recovery in Q2 looks to have been strongest in Russia, Israel... 24th June 2021 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CNB starts lift-off, aggressive tightening cycle in store The Czech National Bank (CNB) raised its two-week repo rate by 25bp to 0.50% at today’s meeting and the accompanying communications support our view that this marks the start of what will be the most... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will vaccine hesitancy become a problem in EMs? For EMs, vaccine supply appears to be by far the biggest constraint on immunisation campaigns; vaccine hesitancy will probably rear its head at a much more advanced stage of rollout in most countries... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor A strong Q2 in Central Europe, weakness in India The latest data suggest that the Central European and some Asian economies will probably post strong GDP growth in Q2, but virus outbreaks have weighed on recoveries in India and parts of Latin... 22nd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: a short, sharp tightening cycle takes hold Hungary’s central bank (MNB) raised interest rates by 30bp today and with inflation set to remain above the MNB’s 4% upper tolerance level well into 2022, we expect an additional 60bp of tightening at... 22nd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (May) Polish retail sales rebounded strongly in May as restrictions were lifted, while industry continued to expand at a solid pace. GDP looks set to return to its pre-virus level in Q2 and we expect the... 22nd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: Hawks to remain in the minority … for now While policymakers in Hungary and Czechia look set to lift interest rates from their pandemic lows later this week, we doubt that Poland’s central bank will follow suit this year. That said, with... 21st June 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation picture more nuanced than headlines suggest While rising commodity prices and supply shortages are boosting inflation everywhere for now, the outlook is mixed. The boost from energy prices will fade soon as the anniversary of last year’s slump... 21st June 2021 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Moscow’s virus surge, MNB and CNB ready for lift-off A surge in virus infections and tightening of containment measures in Moscow this week, coming alongside very low vaccine coverage, threatens to weigh on activity and derail Russia's economic recovery... 18th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Inflation concerns build Inflation has risen sharply across the emerging world in the last few months, prompting much more cautious words from central banks (mainly in Latin America and Emerging Europe), but we expect that EM... 18th June 2021 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT still treading cautiously The statement accompanying today’s decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to leave its policy rate at 19.00% suggests that policymakers are (for now) standing up to political pressure to lower... 17th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM policy tightening will proceed only gradually The broad-based rise in inflation across EMs this year has elicited varying degrees of policy responses from central banks. Those facing above-target inflation and most worried about credibility... 16th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ruble gains, Hungary policy rift, stronger CEE currencies The Russian ruble appreciated to its strongest level against the dollar since last July this week and the balance of forces now increasingly favours further gains, but a lot depends on geopolitics and... 11th June 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update We now forecast major CEE currencies to outperform the euro We now expect interest rates to rise across Central and Eastern Europe in the coming years and for all the major currencies to strengthen against the euro, with the Czech koruna and Polish zloty... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The outlook remains bright for CEE exports While the composition of Central and Eastern European (CEE) exports is set to change over the coming quarters as some of the effects of the pandemic unwind, we forecast that export growth will remain... 10th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Debt risks building, but mostly a medium-term concern Growing political turmoil in Latin America over recent weeks has raised concerns about public debt, though vulnerabilities are most likely to crystallise over the medium term. Meanwhile, EM currency... 10th June 2021 · 6 mins read
