Europe Commercial Property Update CEE office occupier activity past the worst Despite poor employment prospects, we are cautiously optimistic on the outlook for CEE leasing activity as the economic recovery gets underway. However, large supply pipelines mean that improving... 8th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jun.) The further rise in Russian inflation to a stronger-than-expected 6.5% y/y in June means the central bank (CBR) is likely to up the pace of tightening when it meets in a couple of weeks. A 75bp hike... 7th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s inflation risks mount, CBRT to delay rate cuts Turkish inflation hit a two-year high in June and recent domestic energy price hikes will cause it to rise even further over the next couple of months. High inflation and signs of a quick recovery... 7th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update OPEC impasse: what next? The failure of OPEC+ to agree to new production quotas has created considerable uncertainty about the group’s oil production going forward. In this Update, we lay out three possible scenarios for OPEC... 6th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BoI withdraws support, but no sign of tightening Israel’s strong economic recovery prompted the central bank to phase out one of its emergency support programmes at today’s meeting and Governor Yaron’s comments suggest that the next step towards... 5th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jun.) The fresh rise in Turkey’s headline inflation rate to 17.5% y/y in June, coupled with signs of a strong rebound in activity after May’s three-week lockdown, means that an interest rate cut in the next... 5th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey dollarisation, Ukraine-IMF, Russia & Poland rates Turkey’s central bank took steps this week to tackle deposit dollarisation in the banking sector, although these efforts will fail to make headway in the absence of a stronger commitment to rein in... 2nd July 2021 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian ruble may hold onto some of this year’s gains The Russian ruble appreciated to a one-year high against the dollar recently but we think the rally will fade as oil prices fall back and US Treasury yields rise further. That said, the central bank’s... 2nd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Central Europe strengthens, but headwinds in Asia The PMIs for June show that manufacturing strengthened in most of Emerging Europe, but virus outbreaks, supply chain disruptions and a softening of demand created headwinds for industry in Asia. One... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: a strong recovery in Q2, but risks ahead Another strong batch of activity data for May suggest that Russia’s economy may have returned to just shy of its pre-pandemic level in Q2. The foundations are in place for the recovery to continue in... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (June) The PMIs for June suggest that manufacturing sectors strengthened in Turkey, Czechia and Poland but weakened in Russia. Meanwhile, in Czechia and Poland, supply chain disruptions intensified, and... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch How will central banks respond to the inflation threat? The rise in inflation and the question of how central banks will respond has dominated headlines over recent weeks. In this Global Central Bank Watch, we set out a framework for thinking about how the... 30th June 2021 · 16 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (June) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators showed a further rise in regional sentiment in June, driven by improvements in retail and services sectors. That said, there is also continued evidence of... 29th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EM central banks might hike next? The next EM central banks likely to raise interest rates are those whose economic recoveries are relatively advanced and can focus on inflation and/or financial risks. Chile and Korea fit into this... 28th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s quick turnaround, Russia’s latest intervention The sharp improvement in Turkey’s virus situation has brightened the near-term outlook and presents a risk to our view that the central bank will start an aggressive easing cycle in the coming months... 25th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: Industrial still a bright spot With virus restrictions set to be eased further, we expect the recovery in economic activity to gather pace from Q3, which should give occupier markets a lift. But the pick-up will not be enough to... 25th June 2021 · 18 mins read
