Europe Commercial Property Update CEE-euro-zone office yield spread to keep widening A weaker CEE rental outlook, coupled with tighter policy and investors’ reassessment of the sector, suggest that the recent widening between CEE and euro-zone office yields has further to go. 3rd December 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.) Turkey’s headline inflation rate jumped to a stronger-than-expected 14.0% y/y in November and, while the lira has rallied strongly over the past month and the economy looks set to suffer a fresh... 3rd December 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update New forecasts in a world of COVID-19 vaccines The distribution of effective COVID-19 vaccines is likely to be relatively quick in Emerging Europe, paving the way for robust economic recoveries that will leave economies much closer to their pre... 1st December 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The manufacturing PMIs for November point to a slowdown in the region but, overall, the sector has held up much better than services. Encouraging signs that Central & Eastern Europe has brought COVID... 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The reversal of relative fortunes within EM equities We think that the outperformance of equities in EM EMEA and Latin America relative to those in EM Asia in November is a sign of things to come, as the world recovers from COVID-19. 30th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Virus outbreaks, CBRT’s shift seems to be the real deal There are encouraging signs that virus outbreaks in Central & Eastern Europe have passed the worst, which has allowed restrictions to be eased in some countries and activity to recover. Meanwhile... 27th November 2020 · 9 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack Reaction to vaccine news may be a sign of things to come Equities and bonds in emerging markets (EMs) rallied sharply on the vaccine news earlier this month, particularly outside of Asia. We think they will continue to fare well as the global economy... 27th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) took a leg down in November and point to the recovery stalling in the middle of Q4. The fall in sentiment was broad-based across the region, though it was... 27th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Rally in Emerging Europe markets has further to run The positive news on COVID-19 vaccines has provided a boost to the region’s economic outlook and this has underpinned a rally in local financial markets. The general improvement in risk appetite and... 26th November 2020 · 16 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging Europe: No respite for rents just yet Data for Q3 confirmed that while some office and industrial markets in the region recorded quarterly rental falls, weakness was still unsurprisingly concentrated in the retail sector. Core-CEE retail... 23rd November 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Oct.) October’s batch of Polish activity data showed a marked divergence in the performance of industry and retail that will probably grow in November as lockdown measures bite harder. The recent... 23rd November 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Oct.) Russian activity data for October suggest that the recovery in activity stalled at the start of Q4. With virus restrictions tightening in many regions, the roll out of the vaccine pushed back, and... 20th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly EU budget problems, CBRT delivers tightening The decisions by Poland and Hungary this week to veto the EU budget and recovery fund brought to a head a conflict about the rule of law that threatens to suspend EU funds. There's a lot at stake... 20th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Long Run Focus The winners and losers from climate change Climate change will be more costly to EMs than developed countries, with parts of Africa, as well as South and South East Asia most vulnerable to rising global temperatures. That said, some EMs could... 19th November 2020 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT steps up to the plate The decision by Turkey’s central bank to hike its one-week repo rate by 475bp, to 15.00%, and pledge to provide all funding through this facility appears to have done enough to convince investors that... 19th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Easing inflation offers room for MNB to lower rates Hungary’s central bank left its key interest rates unchanged today but the recent appreciation of the forint and signs that disinflationary forces have picked up has given the central bank scope to... 17th November 2020 · 3 mins read
