Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

CEE struggling, Turkish lira an unlikely outperformer

The Q3 GDP data released out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week has only added to worries about the health of the region’s economies, but with inflation still a concern – and in some cases...

15th November 2024 · 7 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Shout it from the rooftops, CRE pricing has troughed

It is increasingly clear to us that pricing in all three regions we forecast has bottomed, even if appraisals are yet to reflect that in mainland Europe and the US. And although we expect recent...

14th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Climate Economics Update

One US deficit that won’t worry Trump

President-elect Trump’s distaste for trade deficits surely does not extend to worrying about the US’s large-scale import of carbon emissions through trade flows. The global imbalance between importers...

14th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Trump and the war in Ukraine

Donald Trump’s re-election has changed perceptions of how the war in Ukraine will develop, with many hoping for a quicker end to the conflict. This Update looks at how the war might evolve and the...

14th November 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland GDP (Q3 2024)

The 0.2% q/q contraction in Polish GDP in Q3 partly reflects the impact of flooding in September, the impact of which will reverse this quarter. Even so, we have become a bit more concerned about...

14th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia GDP (Q3) & Consumer Prices (Oct.)

The slowdown in Russian GDP growth in Q3, to 3.1% y/y, is likely to be followed by a further loss of momentum over the coming quarters. But, alongside CPI data which show that inflationary pressures...

13th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

The Trump trade and EM crisis risks

The environment of higher US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar that we think will accompany a second Trump administration is one that, historically, has been associated with crises in EMs with...

12th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

War and peace

Donald Trump’s victory in the US election could pave the way for dialogue with Russia and a ceasefire in Ukraine, but we think it's unlikely in this scenario that sanctions on Russia would be lifted...

8th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

The National Bank of Romania left its policy rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, against a backdrop of stubborn above-target inflation and concerns about the loose fiscal stance ahead of elections...

8th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

The Czech National Bank cut its policy rate by 25bp again today, to 4.00%, and we still think that the conditions will be in place for the policy rate to be lowered to its estimated neutral level of 3...

7th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave its policy rate on hold again today, at 5.75%, was never in doubt, and we think that interest rate cuts are unlikely to resume until the middle of...

6th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Turkey set for a slow disinflation process

Inflation figures out of Turkey – including those published for October yesterday – have surprised on the upside and forward-looking indicators suggest that the disinflation process will be slow in...

5th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct.)

The smaller-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in October, to 48.6% y/y, is likely to dash any remaining hopes that a monetary easing cycle will start this year. The risks now seem skewed towards...

4th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Hungary back in recession, War in Ukraine

The Q3 GDP data out of Central Europe this week continued a bleak run of activity data for the region, with Hungary’s economy significantly underperforming expectations. The risks to our GDP growth...

1st November 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest activity data out of Emerging Europe have been surprisingly weak, and GDP...

31st October 2024 · 1 min read