Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.)

The communications accompanying the decision by the Hungarian central bank to cut its base rate by a smaller 25bp today, to 7.00%, were fairly hawkish and support our view that the base rate will only...

18th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Consumer Prices (May)

The further rise in Russian in inflation to 8.3% y/y in May was stronger than expected, and means that an interest rate hike at the central bank’s next meeting in July now looks all but certain. While...

14th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

EV tariffs, European election results, May inflation

The EU’s new tariffs on EV imports from China announced this week could provide a boost to economies in Central and Eastern Europe by pushing Chinese carmakers to set up more factories in the region...

14th June 2024 · 7 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Outlook

End of the correction in sight, but outlook remains gloomy

The price correction showed signs of stabilisation in early 2024, but we think further, albeit much smaller, value falls are to come as yields edge a bit higher. Values should bottom by year-end, but...

13th June 2024 · 32 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2024)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. With economic activity strengthening across Emerging Europe and inflationary pressures...

13th June 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jun. 2024)

Net capital inflows into EMs have climbed back into positive territory in recent weeks, driven by a sharp rise in foreign investors’ purchases of Turkish government debt. This strength could continue...

11th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Turkey FX reserves, CEE rebound, ECB starts easing

The rebound in Turkey’s FX reserves, with one key measure (net reserves excluding FX swaps) turning positive for the first time in four years, is a necessary part of the policy shift underway and...

7th June 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.)

Russia’s central bank (CBR) left its key policy rate on hold at 16.00% but delivered a much more hawkish message at today’s meeting. Inflation concerns are likely to persist for some time and we think...

7th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economic Outlook

Growth strengthening, inflation risks resurfacing

Activity strengthened across Emerging Europe in Q1 and we expect this to be sustained over the coming quarters, with GDP growth in most economies exceeding consensus expectations in 2024. This is...

6th June 2024 · 22 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM growth robust in Q1 but disparities persist

Aggregate EM GDP growth remained strong in Q1, though we still expect a slowdown later this year. At a regional level, Emerging Asia will lead the pack, however there are tentative signs that...

6th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Activity Data (Apr.)

Russia’s economy appears to have had a slightly softer start to Q2, with industrial production and retail sales growth both slowing in April. Still, the latest indicators for May have remained strong...

5th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.)

Poland’s central bank (NBP) left its policy rate on hold at 5.75% today and policymakers are likely to maintain fairly hawkish communications as inflation rebounds in the second half of the year. We...

5th June 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM manufacturing performance strong but uneven

The EM manufacturing PMI remained at a three-year high in May but the picture is becoming increasingly nuanced at a country level. Meanwhile, the PMIs also showed price pressures rose again last month...

3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read

FX Markets Update

Zloty’s appreciation may come to a halt

Having lagged behind other emerging market (EM) currencies for most of the post-pandemic period, the Polish zloty has lead the pack over the past six months. While we think that most of this rally has...

3rd June 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Manufacturing PMIs (May)

The manufacturing PMIs for May show a divergence in the region, with conditions improving slightly in Czechia and Russia’s economy continuing to boom. But industry weakened sharply in Poland and...

3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read