Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) The manufacturing PMIs for December provided encouraging signs that output and new orders continued to rise strongly. However, the surveys also provide evidence that supply chain disruptions and raw... 4th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Dec.) The further rise in Turkey’s headline inflation rate, to 14.6% y/y in December, is unlikely to be enough to push the central bank (CBRT) towards additional monetary tightening. Even so, with the CBRT... 4th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Making the case for EM EMEA and Latin American equities We expect equities in EM EMEA and Latin America to claw back some more of the ground that they lost this year relative to stock markets elsewhere, as some fundamental factors linked to the spread of... 18th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Nov.) Russian activity data for November suggest that, despite the sharp rise in new COVID-19 cases and tightening of virus restrictions, the economy may come through Q4 suffering only a minor slowdown. 18th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia food prices, Czech tax cut, Turkey’s policy shift Measures taken by Russia’s government this week to try to curb the rise in food inflation are unlikely to have a major impact on monetary policy, but they do underline that higher social spending is... 18th December 2020 · 6 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We expect EM local currency bond yields to remain low Positive vaccine news has not changed our view that monetary policy in many emerging markets (EMs) will generally remain loose for some time yet. That is a key reason why we still expect EM local... 18th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: Not out of the woods yet While vaccine developments have improved the economic outlook for the latter half of next year, the near-term weakness in economic activity means that property values will remain under pressure over... 18th December 2020 · 19 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Vaccine offers hope, but challenges still lie ahead Daily new COVID-19 infections have levelled off or fallen in most parts of Central Europe and there are signs that activity has started to rebound. But the fresh rise in new cases this month in... 17th December 2020 · 16 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Four key developments to focus on in 2021 2020 has been a year full of surprises and in this Update we outline key areas to watch next year. Early vaccine distribution will pave the way for a rapid economic recovery, but disinflation forces... 15th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update Assessing the outlook for EM LC sovereign bonds Although we have revised up our forecasts for economic growth in many emerging markets (EMs), we generally still expect monetary policy to remain loose, or be loosened further, to the benefit of local... 14th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey sanctions threat, EU compromise, CEE inflation The possibility of the US and EU imposing sanctions on Turkey has increased this week and a further escalation of tensions could undermine the gains from the recent shift to more orthodox economic... 11th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Next year’s vaccine boost to vary across countries The race to secure and approve COVID-19 vaccines is in full swing and, while roll-out will generally be slower in EMs than in DMs, immunisation of vulnerable populations over the next year or so is a... 10th December 2020 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is there really a housing bubble forming in Russia? The success of the Russian government’s preferential mortgage scheme this year has prompted concerns that a bubble might be forming in Russia’s housing market, but we think this risk is some way off... 10th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland, Hungary and the EU budget: what’s at stake Failure of Poland and Hungary to reach an agreement with the EU over the veto of the bloc’s budget would have severe political and economic consequences if funds were withheld. Even if a deal is... 9th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Nov.) The jump in Russian inflation to a 16-month high of 4.4% y/y last month takes the prospect of further interest rate cuts off the table for the next few months at least. That said, with underlying... 4th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly EU Budget, Russia vaccinations, Romania elections Leaders in Hungary and Poland appear unwilling to back down over their EU budget veto, but threats by EU officials to circumvent them entirely may make a compromise more likely. President Putin’s... 4th December 2020 · 5 mins read
