Emerging Europe Economics Update Picking apart the divergence in Central Europe in Q4 The full breakdown of Q4 GDP data for Central Europe showed that net trade exerted a drag on growth in Poland while it provided a boost to Czechia and Hungary. But looking ahead, mounting headwinds to... 2nd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs still point to further EM recovery February’s manufacturing PMIs released across the emerging world were the proverbial mixed bag but, taken together, generally point towards solid EM industrial production growth in the next month or... 1st March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The manufacturing PMIs for February showed strong increases in output and new export orders in Poland and Russia, while manufacturing conditions deteriorated in Turkey and Czechia. The survey also... 1st March 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Market rout grips Turkey, third waves the talk in CEE The Turkish lira has been among the hardest hit EM currencies this week amid the global market sell off and, while concerns that the shift in policymaking is unravelling are probably overdone, there's... 26th February 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) showed an improvement in sentiment across Central and Eastern Europe in February. A broad-based pick up in services sentiment drove the increase, while... 25th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Headwinds to the recovery mount Emerging Europe came through the second virus wave in Q4 in a better state than we had expected, with services sectors holding up and industry booming in Central Europe. But the headwinds have mounted... 24th February 2021 · 13 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: Robust labour markets bode well for the recovery Labour markets across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have held up well since the start of the pandemic and we think this will continue over the next few years, which will support recoveries across... 24th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging Europe: Further pain in store for retail While virus restrictions have weighed on retail markets across Europe, the hit has been particularly severe in CEE. Indeed, core-CEE prime retail rents fell by an eye-watering 20% last year, the... 23rd February 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jan.) Polish activity data for January suggest that the economy broadly stagnated at the start of the year as the extension of virus containment measures hit the retail sector while industry remained... 19th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jan.) Russian activity data for January show that industry came off the boil at the start of the year while activity in the retail sector picked up strongly. The fall in virus cases and relaxation of some... 18th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Central Europe, the pandemic and the inflation outlook The pandemic hasn’t had a major disinflationary effect in Central Europe and the region is in what we think will turn out to be a prolonged period of above-target inflation. But how this affects... 18th February 2021 · 20 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT holds and steps up its rhetoric on inflation fight Turkey’s central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 17.00% at today’s MPC meeting and the hawkish tone in the statement, including a commitment to bring inflation back to the 5% target, supports... 18th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s shift to orthodoxy and the impact so far The shift in policymaking at Turkey’s central bank has supported a rally in local financial markets over the past few months and we think this has further to run. We now expect the Turkish lira to end... 17th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q4 2020) The Q4 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe revealed that all countries other than Poland grew at the end of 2020. But there was a marked divergence across the region that can be partly explained... 16th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Slow vaccine rollout, Turkey’s S-400s, Czech tightening The incredibly slow start to vaccination programmes across the region threatens to delay the recovery we had expected from Q2 this year. Meanwhile, signs that Turkey is open to compromise on its... 12th February 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (Q4 2020) GDP figures show that Poland’s economy contracted by 0.7% q/q in Q4, which is likely to have been among the larger falls across Europe. Containment measures are likely to be lifted slowly in a few... 12th February 2021 · 2 mins read
