Emerging Markets Economics Update Revisiting financial repression in EMs The recent rise in EM sovereign bond yields will, if sustained, make public debt problems in some countries even worse. Those with large local currency debts may ultimately turn to financial... 18th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Virus developments pushing back the recovery The renewed surge in virus cases and tightening of restrictions across Central Europe will deal a heavy blow to the recovery in the first half of this year. Meanwhile, slow vaccine rollouts mean that... 17th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Taper tantrum fears return EM financial markets have been hit this month by the rise in US Treasury yields, which has re-ignited some concerns about a re-run of the Taper Tantrum. So far, capital outflows from EMs have been... 16th March 2021 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s CA deficit, sticky inflation in Hungary Current account figures out of Turkey this week were a bit worse than expected but the underlying trend suggests that the economy is rebalancing. This, alongside a further interest rate hike by the... 12th March 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are we about to see a wave of EM rate hikes? Recent currency falls and rises in inflation have all but guaranteed interest rate hikes in Turkey and Brazil next week, and Russia’s central bank is likely to lay the groundwork for tightening too... 11th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: semiconductor shortages add to H1 headwinds The disruption to auto production caused by semiconductor shortages is yet another reason (alongside tight COVID-19 restrictions) to expect growth in Central and Eastern Europe to struggle in H1 2021. 10th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Rising bond yields and the threat to EM debt burdens The rise US Treasury yields poses a risk for those EMs with large external financing needs such as Turkey as well as some smaller frontier markets, and could force central banks in these countries to... 10th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Bond market jitters unlikely to trigger spate of EM crises While further market turmoil is a risk over the coming quarters, the likelihood of outright banking, sovereign debt and currency crises among the large EMs is low. More acute vulnerabilities lie in... 5th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT & NBU in tightening mode, NBP not even close The further rise in inflation in Turkey last month and the continued fall in the lira this week prompted a hawkish announcement from the CBRT and we now expect a 100bp rise in the one-week repo rate... 5th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap SDR allocation no panacea for distressed frontiers A fresh allocation of IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), if implemented, would provide a welcome boost to the depleted foreign exchange reserves of some distressed frontier economies. But an... 3rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Picking apart the divergence in Central Europe in Q4 The full breakdown of Q4 GDP data for Central Europe showed that net trade exerted a drag on growth in Poland while it provided a boost to Czechia and Hungary. But looking ahead, mounting headwinds to... 2nd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs still point to further EM recovery February’s manufacturing PMIs released across the emerging world were the proverbial mixed bag but, taken together, generally point towards solid EM industrial production growth in the next month or... 1st March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The manufacturing PMIs for February showed strong increases in output and new export orders in Poland and Russia, while manufacturing conditions deteriorated in Turkey and Czechia. The survey also... 1st March 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Market rout grips Turkey, third waves the talk in CEE The Turkish lira has been among the hardest hit EM currencies this week amid the global market sell off and, while concerns that the shift in policymaking is unravelling are probably overdone, there's... 26th February 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) showed an improvement in sentiment across Central and Eastern Europe in February. A broad-based pick up in services sentiment drove the increase, while... 25th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Headwinds to the recovery mount Emerging Europe came through the second virus wave in Q4 in a better state than we had expected, with services sectors holding up and industry booming in Central Europe. But the headwinds have mounted... 24th February 2021 · 13 mins read
