Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Near the front of the EM pack Third virus waves and the slow vaccine rollout will weigh on near-term growth in the region, but we expect a strong recovery in activity to take place later this year and in 2022. Our forecasts for... 26th April 2021 · 29 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Putin’s fiscal gift, lira fall, Polish inflation, Israel launch President Putin’s state of the nation address this week outlined more social welfare measures ahead of elections in September, but the implications for growth and inflation will be limited. Meanwhile... 23rd April 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Virus outbreaks cloud the outlook New COVID-19 cases have surged in the emerging world, with India, Emerging Europe and Latin America particularly hard hit. Social distancing measures have been tightened in many countries, which will... 21st April 2021 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Virus outbreaks diverge, Russian sanctions, CBRT hold Third waves of COVID-19 in Central Europe seem to have peaked and authorities are moving to ease restrictions on activity, which should support recoveries. But Turkey’s outbreak has gone from bad to... 16th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT opening the door to rate cuts The decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to leave its policy rate at 19.00% was accompanied by reassuring language that the MPC, under new governor Sahap Kavciouglu, aims to bring down... 15th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Conflict in the Donbass, Turkey’s FX reserve problem The flare up in military tensions between Russia and Ukraine this week poses a major threat to political stability in the region and could exacerbate some existing macro vulnerabilities in both... 9th April 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Rare zloty weakness, Erdogan’s extended purge The Polish zloty touched its weakest level against the euro this week since 2009 but we don’t expect the currency to lose any more ground from here. Meanwhile, Turkey’s President Erdogan took further... 1st April 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) The manufacturing PMIs showed that supply problems intensified in March, and this continued to push up price pressures. While supply disruption also artificially pushed up the headline PMIs, there are... 1st April 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Headwinds to the recovery start to build The economic data out of the emerging world for Q1 look reasonably strong, but worsening COVID-19 outbreaks and a shift towards policy tightening are creating headwinds for some EMs. Activity in... 31st March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Mar.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) showed an improvement across most of Central and Eastern Europe in March, despite a surge in virus cases across the region. That said, sentiment in... 30th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE’s delayed recovery, cautious CNB, Turkey turmoil The rise in virus infections, extension of containment measures and slow pace of vaccination mean that we are revising down our GDP forecasts in Central Europe this year. Meanwhile, the fallout from... 26th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: Less than stellar recovery in values Following a year marked with sharp falls in retail rents and rising retail and office yields, the next few months for property values will continue to be dismal. We have pencilled in another drop in... 26th March 2021 · 19 mins read
Energy Update Five key questions on the EU’s carbon border tax Later this year, the European Commission is expected to provide draft details on how the EU will introduce and implement a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM, often dubbed a ‘carbon border tax’)... 26th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Region leading the EM central bank policy shift Emerging Europe has been at the heart of the shift in EM monetary policy over the past month, with central banks in Russia, Turkey and Ukraine raising interest rates in March. The triggers for... 25th March 2021 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Erdogan sacks Agbal, risk of currency crisis grows The shock decision by Turkey’s President Erdogan to sack central bank governor Naci Agbal late on Friday is likely to trigger large falls in the lira when markets open on Monday. It looks like the... 20th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia sanctions, vaccine worries, NBR turns hawkish Comments from US President Joe Biden this week threatening to take a tougher stance against Russia have raised the prospect of tighter US sanctions that could deal a significant blow to Russian... 19th March 2021 · 7 mins read
