Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Strong recovery, but inflation a lasting concern Rapid recoveries are underway across the region and GDP should return close to its pre-pandemic path sooner than in most other EM regions. While the spread of highly transmissible virus strains poses... 21st July 2021 · 28 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM goods exports may have passed the peak After surging over the past year, the latest data provide signs that EM goods exports have now passed their peak. However, they are still likely to stay at elevated levels for some time yet. 21st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Poland Activity Data (Jun.) Polish industrial production and retail sales figures for June suggest that the rebound in economic activity softened a touch at the end of Q2, but GDP still looks to have expanded by 2.0% q/q in Q2... 21st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at the Delta variant’s threat to recoveries The spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19 poses a much bigger risk to economic recoveries in emerging markets than in developed markets. India, South Africa, and South East Asia have suffered... 20th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: surging inflation to prompt more rate hikes Russian inflation shows no sign of letting up and looks set to remain above the central bank’s 4% target until at least the end of next year. With households’ inflation expectations also rising, we... 19th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel’s virus resurgence, re-opening inflation in CEE The experience of Israel in recent weeks serves as a reminder that vaccine campaigns across Emerging Europe still have some way to go and that we are likely to have to learn to live with COVID long... 16th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Shifting towards rate hikes Falling virus cases, strong economic recoveries and/or inflation worries prompted several more EM central banks – those of Czechia, Chile, Hungary and Mexico – to tighten monetary policy in the past... 15th July 2021 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Israel Consumer Prices (Jun.) The rise in headline inflation in Israel to a near 8-year high of 1.7% y/y in June was largely a result of base effects that pushed up food inflation. The muted 0.1% m/m rise in prices suggests that... 15th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (May) Turkey’s activity figures for May, the month of a three-week national lockdown, showed that the industrial sector came through unscathed but that retail sales were hit hard. More timely evidence... 13th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s inflation surprise, Russia & OPEC+ The surprisingly large rise in Hungarian inflation in June to its highest rate in almost nine years suggests that the risks to our interest rate forecast are skewed to the upside. Elsewhere, the... 9th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP in no rush to tighten policy Poland’s central bank left interest rates on hold today and, while it revised up its GDP growth and inflation forecasts, there was little sign in the accompanying press statement that the balance on... 8th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Taking stock of the improvement in EM budget deficits Budget deficits have narrowed from their 2020 peaks across the emerging world. The improvements in Brazil and Argentina – where deficits appear to be narrower than their pre-pandemic levels – provide... 8th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update CEE office occupier activity past the worst Despite poor employment prospects, we are cautiously optimistic on the outlook for CEE leasing activity as the economic recovery gets underway. However, large supply pipelines mean that improving... 8th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jun.) The further rise in Russian inflation to a stronger-than-expected 6.5% y/y in June means the central bank (CBR) is likely to up the pace of tightening when it meets in a couple of weeks. A 75bp hike... 7th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s inflation risks mount, CBRT to delay rate cuts Turkish inflation hit a two-year high in June and recent domestic energy price hikes will cause it to rise even further over the next couple of months. High inflation and signs of a quick recovery... 7th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update OPEC impasse: what next? The failure of OPEC+ to agree to new production quotas has created considerable uncertainty about the group’s oil production going forward. In this Update, we lay out three possible scenarios for OPEC... 6th July 2021 · 3 mins read
