Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (November 2024)

EM GDP growth ticked up in Q3 but is likely to fall short of expectations over the coming quarters as stimulus in China disappoints and still-tight monetary policy takes it toll. For most EMs, a...

27th November 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

The implications of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire

The economic impact of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire hinges on whether the deal holds and whether it sets the stage for a broader de-escalation of the regional conflict. If it does, that would allow...

27th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov. 2024)

Amid the Trump Trade, capital outflows from EM financial markets have persisted over recent weeks. Looking ahead, we expect the US dollar to strengthen further, suggesting that outflows will continue...

26th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Activity Data (Oct.)

The stronger-than-expected Polish activity data for October suggest that the contraction in the economy in Q3 wasn’t the start of a renewed trend. With fiscal policy set to remain loose over the...

26th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

25th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Presidential Election (First Round)

The surprise lead for an independent far-right candidate, Călin Georgescu, in the first round of Romania’s presidential election raises the risk of an abrupt shift towards more populist policymaking...

25th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Russia-Ukraine escalation, CBRT rate cut approaching?

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated this week, with Ukraine using Western-provided long-range weapons on Russian territory and Russia launching an “experimental” ballistic missile against...

22nd November 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Focus

Romania’s election: macro stability in the balance

Romania will elect a new government over the coming weeks at a time when the economy is performing poorly, inflation is running above target, and macroeconomic stability depends on policymakers...

21st November 2024 · 22 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

The communications accompanying the decision by the Turkish central bank to leave its policy rate unchanged again today, at 50.00%, suggest that analysts’ expectations for an easing cycle to start in...

21st November 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 2024)

Stable property yields and solid rental growth supported a second rise in prime all-property values in Q3. While there is still likely to be upward pressure on yields in some markets, property values...

21st November 2024 · 0 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Trump and EMs: key questions answered

We held a series of client meetings in the US last week which focused on the implications of Trump’s victory in the US election and the spillovers to EMs. This Update answers some of the most frequent...

20th November 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

19th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Commodities Update

European gas at the mercy of LNG

European natural gas prices have trended higher this year and are likely to fluctuate around €40-45 per MWh until conditions in the global LNG market loosen. That said, prices will drop back...

15th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

CEE struggling, Turkish lira an unlikely outperformer

The Q3 GDP data released out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week has only added to worries about the health of the region’s economies, but with inflation still a concern – and in some cases...

15th November 2024 · 7 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Shout it from the rooftops, CRE pricing has troughed

It is increasingly clear to us that pricing in all three regions we forecast has bottomed, even if appraisals are yet to reflect that in mainland Europe and the US. And although we expect recent...

14th November 2024 · 4 mins read