Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.)

The decision by Poland’s central bank (NBP) to leave its policy rate at 5.75% today came as no surprise and we doubt that policymakers will have scope to lower interest rates until the middle of next...

3rd July 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Jun.)

The larger-than-expected decline in Turkish inflation in June marks the start of a new phase of the disinflation process, and we are likely to see much steeper falls in the y/y inflation rate in July...

3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Asia continuing to lead EM manufacturing PMIs higher

The EM manufacturing PMI rose to a three-year high in June, driven by improvements in the surveys in much of Asia which have continued to benefit from strong export demand. Manufacturing recoveries...

1st July 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.)

The manufacturing PMIs for June provide encouraging signs that a rebalancing of Turkey’s economy is underway, with domestic demand weakening and inflation pressures softening. But in Russia, the...

1st July 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

French election spillovers, Turkey’s inflation descent

The first round of the French election taking place this weekend could put further upward pressure on bond yields in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), particularly if concerns about the direction for...

28th June 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.)

The decision by the Czech National Bank to deliver another 50bp cut to its policy rate today, to 4.75%, was a dovish surprise to most analysts (although not ourselves). That said, the post-meeting...

27th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economic Outlook

EM easing cycle moving into a new phase

Emerging markets in Asia and parts of Europe will continue to perform well and better than most expect this year, but we think that Latin America will lag behind. The EM monetary easing cycle is...

27th June 2024 · 26 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.)

The decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to leave its main policy rate on hold again today, at 50.00%, was widely expected, and the continued hawkish communications support our view that...

27th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Economic Outlook

Recovery signs clouded by political uncertainty

The global economy seems to be heading into recovery mode as the adverse effects of the previous surge in inflation subside. Real incomes are recovering in most advanced economies and China is feeling...

27th June 2024 · 46 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jun.)

The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that regional growth strengthened at the end of Q2, with our regional-weighted measure of sentiment...

27th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Activity Data (May)

The Polish activity data for May were a mixed bag with retail sales bouncing back, while industry suffered a renewed contraction. With domestic demand likely to stay strong over the coming months, we...

24th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

CEE easing cycles shifting down a gear

The Hungarian central bank’s decision to opt for a smaller interest rate cut at its meeting this week fits into a broader theme that policymakers in parts of the EM world are moving towards a slower...

21st June 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Ukraine: a close look at external financing and debt relief

The G7 loan to Ukraine announced last week and the narrowing window to approve a new debt relief package once the payment suspension with private creditors ends in August has shone the spotlight on...

20th June 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (June 2024)

After a strong start to the year, aggregate EM GDP growth will slow over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Emerging Asia the outperformer and Latin America the...

20th June 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

EDP won’t heal CEE’s fiscal fragilities

The European Commission’s recommendation to open the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) against Poland, Hungary and Slovakia for breaching the EU’s fiscal rules won’t force a drastic change in...

19th June 2024 · 5 mins read