Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery comes off the boil The EM manufacturing PMIs for August suggest that virus disruptions and supply chain constraints held back output in much of Emerging Asia. Manufacturing slowed in most other EMs too, although there... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q2 2021) A strong rebound from May’s three-week lockdown meant that Turkey’s economy managed to expand by 0.9% q/q over Q2 as a whole and the early signs are that it carried this momentum into Q3. Robust... 1st September 2021 · 3 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack China’s growth slowdown may hold back EM equities We think slower growth in China will continue to weigh on the country’s stock market, as well as those of some other emerging markets (EMs). 27th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s giveaways, NBP’s hawkishness, Turkey and SDRs Russia's government this week unveiled new lump-sum payments to pensioners and military personnel ahead of September's election, strengthening our above-consensus views on inflation and interest rates... 27th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation pressures mount as activity rebounds Recoveries across Emerging Europe accelerated in Q2 as the easing of virus restrictions pushed GDP to, or above, pre-pandemic levels in most countries and we think this momentum will continue in Q3... 26th August 2021 · 16 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Em. Europe & Lat Am leading the recovery in Q3 Most economies in Emerging Europe and Latin America look set for a strong third quarter and, while the near-term outlook for Southeast Asian economies remains challenging, high-frequency mobility... 25th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will supply constraints hold back the recovery in CEE? Intermediate goods shortages and pandemic-related supply constraints across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are not going to disappear overnight and may hold back the pace of recovery in certain... 25th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update MNB hints at slower tightening, tapering takes stage Hungary’s central bank (MNB) raised its base rate by another 30bp, to 1.50%, as expected today but also dropped its commitment to raise interest rates on a monthly basis which suggests that the... 24th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging Europe: Retail rental falls still on the cards In line with the economic recovery, there were growing signs that property markets have turned a corner in Q2. All-property rents rose on the quarter, while the all-property yield dipped on the back... 24th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BoI maintains its dovish tone as outlook dims Israel’s central bank (BoI) sounded more cautious about the outlook at today’s MPC meeting given the rise in virus cases and tightening of containment measures. Provided the third booster jab is... 23rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update COVID-19 outbreaks diverge, booster shots rolled out The past month has seen a growing divergence in COVID-19 outbreaks across the region, with cases still very low in Central Europe but surging in Israel and Turkey. Either way, it appears that... 23rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Romania’s fiscal risks, Israel’s 4th wave, CBRT pressure Romania's new finance minister has a tough job ahead to keep the public finances on a sustainable path, especially as the PM is seeking to raise spending. Elsewhere, Israel's fourth virus wave has... 20th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from major emerging markets have picked up sharply over the past couple of weeks, driven by virus concerns, growing expectations that the Fed will begin tapering asset purchases... 20th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jul.) Polish industrial production continued to expand at a solid pace in July while retail sales fell as the re-opening of the economy shifted spending away from goods. The big picture is that the economy... 20th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Watch Oil prices would still fall even if OPEC expands In this Energy Watch, we discuss the future of OPEC and its role in the oil market. While we suspect that its membership may expand, we think that its ability to influence oil prices will fall over... 19th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Asia bucks the monetary policy trend Several EM central banks have continued to tighten monetary policy over the past month or so in response to strong reopening rebounds (Chile, Czech Republic, Hungary) and/or rising inflation concerns... 18th August 2021 · 10 mins read
