Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-Ukraine tensions and the latest sanctions threat The newswires have been abuzz this week with reports of a potential Russian military conflict with Ukraine and the US has threatened sanctions which, if imposed, would clearly cause pain for Russia's... 10th December 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP slows tightening, but steps up hawkish rhetoric The National Bank of Poland’s decision to slow the pace of its tightening cycle with a 50bp interest rate hike (to 1.75%) seems a bit inconsistent with its more hawkish tone on inflation in the... 8th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Nov.) The rise in Russian inflation to 8.4% y/y last month reinforces our view that the central bank will hike the one-week repo rate by 75bp (to 8.25%) when it meets in December – that’s a larger hike than... 8th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Where do the risks lie across banking sectors? Banking sectors in Emerging Europe have come through the pandemic with few scars and vulnerabilities generally remain low, but we identify three potential areas of concern, including deposit... 7th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: five key questions (and answers) This Update answers some of the most common questions that we have received from clients during Turkey’s recent turmoil. In short, the economic fallout doesn’t look like it will be as bad as it was... 7th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Turkey and frontiers in the firing line The dramatic slump in the Turkish lira over the past month once again leaves the currency firmly in crisis territory. One crumb of comfort is that Turkish banks are in a better position to cope with... 7th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Omicron & tightening cycles, Turkey into the unknown While a lot is still unknown about the Omicron variant, we don’t think it will prevent central banks from delivering further large interest rate hikes - Poland will be a case in point next week, where... 3rd December 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey & the macro fallout from past “sudden stops” The history books show that currency crises in other parts of the emerging world in recent decades have resulted in peak-to-trough falls in GDP of around 8% on average and pushed headline inflation up... 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.) The rise in Turkey’s headline inflation rate to 21.3% y/y in November will almost certainly be followed by further chunky increases over the coming months that take it to 25-30% as the effects of the... 3rd December 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update More to Polish industry resilience than meets the eye Poland’s industrial sector as a whole has shaken off widespread materials shortages in recent months, in part due to its more diversified sectoral make-up than the rest of CEE. But it also reflects... 2nd December 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Disruptions no longer worsening, but Omicron a threat November’s PMIs offered tentative signs that the worst of the supply disruption may have passed, but the bigger picture is that manufacturers in the emerging world remain stretched. And while it’s... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Oct.) Russia’s economy made a mixed start to Q4 as industrial production recovered while retail sales growth slowed sharply. With the country’s severe virus outbreak and low vaccine coverage set to keep... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The manufacturing PMIs in November were surprisingly strong across the board, but with supply chains stretched and the emergence of the Omicron variant clouding the outlook, there are reasons to be... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Virus outbreaks diverge, but Omicron a renewed risk COVID-19 outbreaks in Central and Eastern Europe have diverged in the past month and that may continue in December, but the emergence of the potentially highly-transmissible Omicron variant could... 30th November 2021 · 16 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update CEE yield compression to continue into 2022 After surprising on the upside this year, we think that the broad-based decline in Central and Eastern European (CEE) property yields will continue in 2022, albeit at a more modest pace. But with... 30th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q3 2021) Turkey’s economy put in another strong performance in Q3 but, as the effects of the recent currency crisis filter through, it is likely to suffer a contraction in Q4. The only crumb of comfort is that... 30th November 2021 · 3 mins read
