Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Sep.) The latest activity data suggest that Poland’s economy ended Q3 with solid momentum, and GDP is likely to have risen by 1.6% q/q (4.7% y/y) in Q3 as a whole. But with the re-opening boost fading and... 21st October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Near-term recovery to face stronger headwinds The region has experienced a rapid recovery, but the re-opening boost has now faded and the region is likely to face stronger headwinds in the near term due to surging COVID-19 cases, rising inflation... 20th October 2021 · 28 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Supply shortages take their toll The supply shortages that have affected many DMs have also intensified in emerging economies over the past couple of months. The automotive sector has been hit hard by global semiconductor shortages... 18th October 2021 · 9 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor Lower valuations may not help EM equities outperform We don’t think the low valuations of emerging market (EM) equity indices relative to those of developed markets (DMs) is reason to expect EM equities to outperform over the next couple of years. 18th October 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Baltic States brush off pandemic’s economic hit GDP in the Baltic States has already surpassed pre-pandemic levels and we expect this strength to be sustained, with growth outpacing Central Europe and the euro-zone as a whole over the coming years... 18th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Erdogan playing with fire, Russia’s commodity boom After putting the final nails in the coffin of the Turkish central bank's credibility with last month's surprise interest rate cut, the grave started to be dug this week with the firing of three MPC... 15th October 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Israel Consumer Prices (Sep.) The further rise in Israeli inflation to 2.5% y/y in September contained no major surprises and we think it will ease towards the lower end of the central bank’s 1-3% target next year. Even so, with... 15th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Car woes to weigh on recoveries in Mexico & CEE The supply constraints that have hit global vehicle output have probably reduced the level of GDP by a modest 0.1-0.2% in most EM auto producers, but some countries like Czechia, Hungary and Mexico... 15th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE: rapid wage growth to fuel above-target inflation Central and Eastern Europe is one of the regions of the world where we think that the risk of sustained higher inflation in the next few years is greatest. The Phillips curve is alive and we think the... 13th October 2021 · 19 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital inflows into EMs appear to have dropped over the past few weeks as investors have turned more risk averse. Looking ahead, a further rise in US Treasury yields could lead to larger outflows... 13th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Aug.) Turkey’s industrial sector bounced back in August following a weak start to the quarter and, while retail sales growth slowed, it looks like the economy recorded another robust increase in GDP in Q3. 12th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland-EU conflict, CEE tightening, auto sector woes The decision this week by Poland's Constitutional Court to rule that some EU laws are in conflict with the Polish Constitution has sent shockwaves through Europe and raises the possibility that the... 8th October 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update CEE investment recovery to pick up from 2022 We think a greater reliance on foreign capital and tighter monetary conditions will leave CEE investment activity lagging the euro-zone in H2. Overall, transactions are set to end the year 5% lower... 8th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BoI ends asset purchases, rate hike now likely in 2022 The Bank of Israel revised up its forecast for GDP growth at today’s meeting and struck a more hawkish tone on inflation as it announced that it will end its asset purchase programme later this year... 7th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Taking stock of the sell-off in EM LC bonds We expect the yields of 10-year emerging market (EM) local-currency (LC) government bonds to rise over the coming years. But, in most EMs, we think yields will rise by less than the 10-year US... 6th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Sep.) Russian inflation accelerated to a fresh five-year high of 7.4% y/y in September and, while this was mainly driven by a sharp increase in food inflation, the central bank is likely to continue its... 6th October 2021 · 2 mins read
