Emerging Europe Economics Update Recapping the Russia-Ukraine crisis Tensions between Russia and the West have intensified and rattled global financial markets. Amidst the uncertain situation, this Update brings together some of the key implications of the crisis for... 15th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q4 2021) Q4 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were generally stronger-than-expected as policymakers responded to virus outbreaks with only light-touch restrictions and easing supply shortages... 15th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect EM LC government bonds to be a mixed bag We think that yields of 10-year emerging market local-currency government bonds may, in general, increase by more in Asia than in other regions by end-2023, in contrast with the pattern over the past... 11th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Polish hawks, Russia-Ukraine latest, Czech budget Comments from Poland’s central bank Governor Glapinski this week underlined the hawkish shift from the NBP and support our view that interest rates will rise to at least 4.5% in this cycle. Meanwhile... 11th February 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EMs looking well placed to weather tightening in DMs Rising inflation has put major DM central banks under pressure and interest rate expectations have risen. But most emerging markets look relatively well placed to weather a period of DM policy... 11th February 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: tightening far from over as inflation surges Russia’s central bank (CBR) maintained the pace of its tightening cycle today with another 100bp interest rate hike, to 9.50%, and the hawkish communications suggest that the cycle will not stop until... 11th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Dec.) Turkey’s latest activity figures suggest that easing supply constraints and the boost to competitiveness from a weak lira supported industry in December, but household spending suffered as the... 11th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Dec.) & Consumer Prices (Jan.) The latest data show that Russia’s economy grew strongly in December and that consumer price inflation rose to 8.7% y/y in January. The inflation reading was weaker than expected, but inflation looks... 9th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBR steps up the pace of tightening The National Bank of Romania (NBR) accelerated its tightening cycle today with a 50bp hike to its key policy rate (to 2.50%) and, with inflation firmly above the central bank’s target, we think this... 9th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP maintains steady tightening as inflation risks build The National Bank of Poland (NBP) raised its policy rate by another 50bp, to 2.75%, at today’s meeting and, while there was little change in language in the statement, we think a backdrop of strong... 8th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What higher oil prices mean for EMs If oil prices were to remain at their elevated levels, they could push current account and budget balances into surplus in many of the EM producers. It would also ease any concerns about dollar pegs... 8th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Russia/Ukraine: near-term inflation; long-term decoupling A Russian invasion of Ukraine or severe ratcheting up of sanctions would add as much as 2%-pts to inflation in DMs, particularly in Europe. Given the inflationary backdrop and hawkish signals from... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tightening financial conditions a growing headwind Financial conditions have continued to tighten in Latin America and Emerging Europe and will likely remain restrictive throughout the year, weighing on activity in both regions. Meanwhile, although... 4th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Weak lira boost missing, Poland-EU conflict hopes? The latest indicators raise concern that the boost to Turkey's external competitiveness from a weak lira may not be having the desired effect. Meanwhile, positive developments in Poland this week... 4th February 2022 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the prospects for EM currencies We expect most emerging market (EM) currencies to struggle, despite their strong start to 2022, as commodity prices fall and the Fed seeks to tighten financial conditions. That said, we think that... 4th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CNB signals that tightening cycle is almost done The Czech National Bank (CNB) slowed the pace of its tightening cycle for the second consecutive month today and the accompanying communications were less hawkish than expected and suggest that there... 3rd February 2022 · 2 mins read
