Emerging Markets Economics Update Food prices a key factor behind diverging EM inflation A significant share of the difference in headline inflation between Emerging Asia and other emerging regions has been driven by food inflation, which appears to be related to domestic conditions more... 12th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (Q3 2021) The solid 2.1% q/q rise in Poland’s GDP in Q3 took the economy to almost 3% above its pre-pandemic level, marking one of the strongest recoveries across Europe. But capacity constraints are starting... 12th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Sep.) Turkey’s activity data for September were the proverbial mixed bag with industrial production falling back but retail sales putting in another robust performance. On balance, the data suggest that... 12th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fiscal policy in Israel set to lose its punch The phasing out of crisis support and strength of tax revenues have boosted Israel’s public finances and the conservative stance of last week’s budget will help to narrow the deficit towards 3% of GDP... 11th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rate hikes to take some heat out of growth and inflation The sharp tightening of monetary policy in the region will strengthen the preference for savings, dampen lending growth and raise debt servicing costs next year. It is plausible to think that higher... 9th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Five points on the latest virus developments in EMs The COVID-19 situation in many EMs has improved markedly over the past month or so as new infections have fallen sharply and vaccine rollouts have gathered pace. That said, the recent surge in virus... 5th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel passed a budget, hawks in flight, Turkey déjà vu The Israeli budgets for 2021 and 2022 passed this week – the first approved budgets in three years – don’t make a big difference to the direction of fiscal policy, but contain key reforms that may... 5th November 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Long road ahead for CEE auto producers Auto producers in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have experienced intermittent factory closures in the second half of this year and things may get worse before they get better. Motor vehicles... 5th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CNB slams its foot on the brakes with monster rate hike The Czech National Bank (CNB) shocked everyone with a 125bp interest rate hike at today’s meeting and while this was clearly intended to front-load tightening, the hawkish communications suggest that... 4th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Cautiously optimistic on Moscow office rents While the latest virus outbreak has clouded the near-term outlook, a tight supply picture and steady employment growth mean that prime Moscow office rents should return to growth in 2022. 4th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP takes its head out of the sand with large rate hike The National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) decision to raise its policy rate by a larger-than-expected 75bp to 1.25% alongside the upwards revision to its inflation forecast suggests to us that the NBP is... 3rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Oct.) The further rise in Russian inflation to 8.1% y/y last month paves the way for the central bank to hike the one-week repo rate by another 75bp (to 8.25%) when it meets in December. Note: We’re holding... 3rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: comparisons with the 2018 currency crisis The economic and political backdrop in Turkey is eerily similar to that which preceded the currency crisis in 2018, although one key difference now is that the lira doesn’t appear to be fundamentally... 3rd November 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct.) Turkey’s headline inflation rate rose further in October to reach 19.9% y/y but the small drop in core inflation and political pressure on the central bank means that further interest rate cuts lie in... 3rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Supply disruptions weigh on EM industry October’s PMIs suggest that manufacturing sectors in Southeast Asia are recovering from recent Covid waves, but supply constraints are taking their toll on industry in China, Brazil and parts of... 2nd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The manufacturing PMIs in October showed that supply disruptions took a greater toll at the start of Q4, with industrial production growth in Turkey slowing and Czech industry likely to have... 1st November 2021 · 2 mins read
