Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turmoil in Turkey, MNB delivers, COVID divergence It's been a turbulent week for Turkey, with the lira falling by around 11% against the dollar and we've looked extensively at the key implications for the economy and financial system. We'll be... 19th November 2021 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack US dollar bull market might just be getting started The dollar has risen to its strongest level in more than a year and, though it is not our central forecast, we think the risk of a more sustained dollar bull market is increasing. 19th November 2021 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM tightening cycles have further to run Inflation in the emerging world has generally surprised to the upside in recent months. But while inflation in most parts of Asia remains at levels which central banks are comfortable with, it has... 19th November 2021 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lira sell-off and lessons from other “sudden stops” The fresh falls in the Turkish lira following the CBRT’s interest rate cut today have left Turkey firmly in crisis territory and echoes of previous “sudden stops” during major EM currency crises in... 18th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Turkey and EM contagion risks The latest crisis engulfing Turkey is likely to make it harder for the country to roll over its external debts, with the banking sector particularly vulnerable. If Turkey’s crisis worsens, it may... 18th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT defies investors with rate cut, crisis risks mount The sharp falls in the lira over the past few days clearly weren’t enough for Turkey’s central bank to stand up to President Erdogan as it pushed ahead with a 100bp cut (to 15.00%) to its one-week... 18th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q3 2021) The softer-than-expected 4.3% y/y expansion in Russia’s GDP in Q3 suggests that the recovery lost momentum during the summer and, with the severe virus outbreak likely to take its toll on domestic... 17th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update All eyes on CBRT as Turkish lira continues to tumble There has been no let up for the Turkish lira today and all eyes are turning to the central bank’s interest rate decision tomorrow. Policymakers’ increased tolerance to falls in the lira as well as... 17th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from EMs have persisted in recent weeks and, looking ahead, a further rise in US Treasury yields could lead to larger outflows over the coming months. The good news is that –... 16th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update MNB drops a bombshell as it pledges faster tightening Investors were initially disappointed following the decision by Hungary’s central bank (MNB) to raise its base rate by only 30bp (to 2.10%) today, but the hawkish post-meeting communications and a... 16th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: threat of currency crisis continues to grow The Turkish lira has remained under significant pressure at the start of this week and there is a growing risk that the central bank’s continued obedience to pressure from President Erdogan for... 16th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Israel GDP (Q3 2021) Israel’s economy slowed much more sharply than expected in Q3 as a shift in consumption habits away from goods and a fading of the re-opening boost to services caused a marked slowdown in consumption... 16th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q3 2021) The Q3 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally undershot expectations and suggest that economies entered Q4 with a clear loss of momentum. With supply disruptions set to persist and... 16th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Israel Consumer Prices (Oct.) The much-weaker-than-expected rise in consumer prices in Israel in October was due to a sharp fall in airfares, but the big picture is that underlying inflation pressures generally remain soft. We don... 15th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE inflation worries mount, Turkish lira closing in on 10 Inflation data out of Central and Eastern Europe this week provided for ugly viewing and with headline rates likely to rise further above central bank's targets in the coming months, this will keep... 12th November 2021 · 11 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We expect LatAm equities to trail those in EM EMEA We think that MSCI’s Emerging Markets (EM) Latin America Index will continue to underperform its EM EMEA Index over the next couple of years, albeit not to the same extent as it has in 2021 so far. 12th November 2021 · 5 mins read
