Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: how strong is the fiscal picture? Turkey’s public finances have become more vulnerable to falls in the currency in recent years, although we think the likelihood of sovereign default is very low. Perhaps the bigger risk for the public... 25th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update The slump in the Baltic Dry Index is all about iron ore Some commentators have pointed to the slump in the Baltic Dry Index as a sign that shipping bottlenecks are easing. But we think it is more a symptom of lower Chinese steel output and plunging iron... 25th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM recoveries enter a more difficult phase Persistent supply shortages, fading reopening boosts and tighter financial conditions all pose headwinds to recoveries in Emerging Europe and Latin America over the coming quarters, while cooling... 25th November 2021 · 2 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack Contagion from Turkey’s crisis likely to remain limited Spillovers to other emerging markets from Turkey’s ongoing currency crisis have been limited so far and we think this will remain the case even if Turkey’s financial markets remain under pressure. 24th November 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Macro fundamentals to support further shekel strength The Israeli shekel has appreciated sharply in the past few weeks, making it one of the best performing currencies during the pandemic. While we don’t expect this recent strength to continue in the... 24th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey & policy responses during past “sudden stops” The Turkish lira’s sharp fall yesterday looks similar to the experience of sudden stops elsewhere. In those instances, central banks usually responded with interest rate hikes of around 600bp as well... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Cyclical pressures set to keep CEE inflation elevated Inflation across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has continued to surge and now sits at its highest level in around 20 years. This can be partly attributed to global factors, such as rising energy... 24th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Headwinds build as financial conditions tighten The sharp tightening of financial conditions in Latin America and Emerging Europe will add to headwinds facing both regions and feeds into our view that recoveries there are entering a slower phase... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Global exposure to Turkey’s currency crisis With the Turkish lira down by 9% so far today and 20% over the past week, the currency is now firmly in crisis territory. Higher inflation and tighter domestic financial conditions are likely to sap... 23rd November 2021 · 5 mins read
Energy Update Taking stock of the European natural gas market European natural gas prices were in the news again last week, soaring by 18%. Given stocks are still low and there are few signs of extra flows from Russia, we think that prices will remain high in... 23rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lira in freefall as policymakers remain defiant The Turkish lira has plunged this morning after President Erdogan signalled yesterday that policymakers have no appetite to respond to the currency’s recent falls by hiking interest rates. Further... 23rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Oct.) The latest data suggest that Poland’s economy started Q4 with solid momentum as industry and retail sales expanded strongly in October. We think that industry will continue to hold up well in the... 23rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BoI offers no new guidance, 2022 rate hike still in play The Bank of Israel (BoI) left its policy rate on hold at 0.10% as expected at its meeting today, confirmed that it will end its bond purchase programme next month and emphasised that it will continue... 22nd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the risks in Turkey’s banking sector Turkey’s banks are generally in a good position to cope with sharp falls in the lira: they have large capital buffers to deal with a rise in non-performing loans, off-balance sheet instruments to... 22nd November 2021 · 5 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging Europe: More positive on near-term pricing CEE property values completed the final leg of their recovery in Q3, fully reversing the nearly 5.5% peak-to-trough drop in 2020. With rents barely moving on the quarter, falls in yields did all the... 22nd November 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly The energy crisis rumbles on … This week showed that the energy crisis is not in the rear-view mirror just yet. Germany’s energy regulator suspended its certification process of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline on Tuesday, owing to... 19th November 2021 · 6 mins read
