Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Fall of Assad, new NATO spending target?

The fall of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad last weekend is a geopolitical blow to Russia, but has been warmly welcomed by many others. Turkey, in particular, could benefit from more influence in...

13th December 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Russia: are financial stability risks starting to crystallise?

Risks to Russia’s macroeconomic stability are mounting on the back of the recent credit boom and sharp rise in interest rates. Our EM financial risk indicators show that Russia is now at high risk of...

12th December 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec. 2024)

Capital inflows into EMs have been resurgent over the past few weeks amid a broader improvement in global risk appetite. Looking ahead, however, likely policies from President-elect Trump point to a...

12th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Outlook

Rental growth the key driver of the property recovery

The recovery in property values is underway. But we think it will be a weak one, even though several European central banks, including the ECB, are forecast to cut interest rates to a lower level than...

12th December 2024 · 27 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Consumer Prices (Nov.)

The renewed acceleration in Russian inflation to 8.9% y/y in November, and likelihood of further increases in the coming months, argue strongly in favour of another large interest rate hike from the...

11th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

A guide to EM elections in 2025

2025 will be a far quieter year in terms of elections than this year was. But there are some key votes that will, among other things, determine whether Argentina’s President Milei builds support for...

10th December 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Romania election drama, rate cuts delayed across EE

The decision by Romania’s constitutional court to annul the first round of the presidential election today after suggestions of Russian interference has been followed by a positive reaction in Romania...

6th December 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.)

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 5.75%, and a rise in inflation over the coming months means that the monetary easing cycle won’t resume until the middle...

4th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Commodities Update

The geopolitics that will shape energy markets in 2025

While energy market fundamentals point to oil prices falling a bit further and prices of European natural gas and Asian LNG remaining higher than before the Russia-Ukraine war, the uncertain...

3rd December 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.)

The smaller-than-expected decline in Turkish inflation in November, to 47.1% y/y, suggests to us that a monetary easing cycle probably won’t start later this month as many analysts seem to be...

3rd December 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

A weak end to 2024 for EM manufacturing

The pick up in the aggregate EM manufacturing PMI in November was largely driven by China. Elsewhere, manufacturing activity looks as though it will remain relatively soft into next year. The surveys...

2nd December 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.)

The PMIs fell deeper into contractionary territory in Poland and Czechia last month, adding to the disappointing run of activity data out of Central Europe. In contrast, the PMIs rose in Turkey and...

2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Parliamentary Election

The centre-left Social Democrats (PSD) – the largest party in Romania’s current coalition – look set to win the most votes in the parliamentary election which took place on Sunday, but strong gains...

2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

RUB under pressure, Israel ceasefire, Romania election

New US sanctions on Russia’s financial system have contributed to a sharp sell-off in the ruble this week and, while a tightening of capital controls has eased pressure on the currency over the past...

29th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey GDP (Q3 2024)

The 0.2% q/q contraction in the Turkish economy in Q3 suggests that policymakers’ efforts to weaken demand and tame high inflation are taking effect. We still think that it would be premature for the...

29th November 2024 · 2 mins read