Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia/Ukraine spillovers to hit CEE economies hard There are already clear signs of spillovers in Central and Eastern Europe from the war in Ukraine and we think that the overall hit to GDP growth in the region this year will amount to 1.0-1.5%-pts... 29th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian markets re-open, gas payments & refugees The resumption of trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange this week marked the first steps towards rolling back crisis measures, but policymaking in Russia remains erratic as highlighted by President... 25th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily What might be the impact of wider embargo on Russian energy? While not our base case, a complete Western ban on imports of energy commodities from Russia would probably send the prices of many soaring. We suspect that such an outcome would have some key... 24th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Clouds gathering over the near-term outlook Activity in large parts of the emerging world has rebounded following the easing of Omicron waves, but the war in Ukraine has caused the growth outlook for most EMs to worsen again. While commodity... 24th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Counting the cost of going cold turkey with Russian oil An EU embargo on Russian oil would push up oil prices and exacerbate the cost-of-living crisis facing consumers. However, while there would be logistical challenges, oil supplies would be easier to... 23rd March 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The economic impact of Ukrainian refugees on CEE The potential for around 3 million refugees to settle in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) by the middle of this year will present a large fiscal cost, but will also boost the size of the labour force... 23rd March 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack War in Ukraine to drag on EM GDP growth The war in Ukraine will have several economic repercussions for the emerging world. We have lowered our aggregate EM GDP growth forecast for 2022 by 1%-pt, to 3.2%. Russia aside, the biggest downward... 23rd March 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update MNB firmly in inflation-fighting mode Hungary’s central bank (MNB) stepped up the pace of tightening today with a 100bp increase in its base rate, to 4.40%, and the hawkish communications underline the view that the central bank will... 22nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Can EMs weather Fed tightening? For the most part, EMs are well placed to withstand rising US interest rates, but there are pockets of vulnerability where external financing needs are significant. Among the large EMs, Turkey... 22nd March 2022 · 13 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Contagion risks to CEE banks likely to be limited A close look at banking sector linkages in Central and Eastern Europe provides encouragement that there is little direct exposure to Russia and Ukraine and that any indirect exposure through a Western... 21st March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Feb.) Activity data for February show that Poland’s economy continued to expand strongly at the start of this year but the war in Ukraine is likely to drag on the recovery through a hit to exports, supply... 21st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s inflation shock, default & peace talks Russia’s default saga seems to be settled for the time being, with creditors reportedly now receiving scheduled Eurobond payments, but the fact that it came so close to default suggests that sanctions... 18th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR trying to stick to orthodoxy The post-meeting speech by Russia’s central bank (CBR) governor Elvira Nabiullina made clear that policymakers think sanctions and autarky are here to stay for the long term. But at the same time... 18th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Assessing the impact of the Ukraine war Next week we will learn more about the extent to which the Ukraine war is impacting economic activity. We have cut our GDP forecast by one percentage point for this year, but the risks to that... 18th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Commodity shifts to worsen most EMs’ external positions Major oil producers are among the main beneficiaries of the rise in commodity prices due to the war in Ukraine. As a result, we’re becoming less concerned about Colombia’s external vulnerabilities. In... 17th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian banks: immediate crisis averted, but risks loom Russia’s banking sector has held up better than might have been expected through the initial stage of the crisis due to large, timely and widespread policy support. But banks will now face the... 16th March 2022 · 5 mins read
