Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP steps up its fight against inflation The National Bank of Poland (NBP) unexpectedly delivered its largest interest rate hike in 22 years today (100bp, to 4.50%) to get on top of the deteriorating inflation outlook and we think there’s... 6th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inverted yield curves a poor signal for EM downturns While yield curves have inverted in a number of emerging markets (and look likely to do so in several others in the coming months), they don’t have a good track record in predicting recessions in the... 6th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Counting the fiscal costs of higher oil prices Higher oil prices will boost government revenues in the major EM energy producers, but many other EMs will face a fiscal cost via fuel subsidy programmes. While these costs are likely to be small in... 4th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Mar.) Turkey’s headline inflation rate recorded another sharp rise to reach 61.1% y/y in March and it is likely to rise a bit further over the coming months. But there is still little sign that the central... 4th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Challenges mounting for EM manufacturers The broad-based fall in March’s manufacturing PMIs shows that the war in Ukraine is starting to take its toll on EM industry, particularly in Emerging Europe, while China’s lockdown is hitting... 1st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Peace talks, Russia’s gas solution, Fidesz set for victory Optimism about the prospect of an end to the war in Ukraine came and went this week and, given the complexity of the issues at stake, it is likely to be some time yet before a breakthrough in talks is... 1st April 2022 · 10 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What Russia’s exclusion means for MSCI’s EM EMEA Index Even though the ejection of Russia from the MSCI EM EMEA Index has changed its country and sector composition, we doubt that this will meaningfully change how it tends to behave. Our forecasts for... 1st April 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) Manufacturing PMIs declined across the region in March amid the war in Ukraine, and with supply chain disruptions and price pressures set to intensify, industry looks set to contract in the coming... 1st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CNB slows tightening, but more on the horizon The Czech National Bank (CNB) slowed the pace of its tightening cycle for the third consecutive month today with a 50bp rate hike to 5.00%, but hawkish communications after the meeting suggest that... 31st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s election: what’s at stake? Fidesz is looking the most likely to retain power in Hungary’s election this weekend, which will pave the way for four more years of tensions with the EU over the rule of law and raise the likelihood... 31st March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russia entering recession, slowdowns in CEE The war in Ukraine has devasted its economy, while Western sanctions are likely to push Russia into a deep contraction, with GDP set to fall by 12% this year. Immediate fears of a Russian sovereign... 30th March 2022 · 15 mins read
Commodities Focus The fallout from Europe’s energy war The industrial sector would bear the brunt of any power rationing imposed as a result of Europe’s shift away from Russian energy, but the direct economic impact of this would be smaller than one might... 30th March 2022 · 24 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Frontier debt risks are crystallising The tightening of global financial conditions since the onset of the Fed’s hiking cycle and the war in Ukraine has caused sovereign dollar bond spreads to widen significantly in several frontier... 30th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Mar.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators unsurprisingly fell in most countries in March amid the fallout from the war in Ukraine and there were further large increases in price pressures on the back of... 30th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: War reinforces weak values outlook The war in Ukraine will have spillover effects for property in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), albeit that Russia will be far worst hit. Economic growth is expected to be slower, which will weigh on... 30th March 2022 · 18 mins read
Long Run Update The long-run effect of the Ukrainian refugee crisis The main long-run economic impact of the Ukrainian refugee crisis will be to boost the workforce of countries where the migrants settle, partially offsetting the unfavourable demographics that many of... 29th March 2022 · 3 mins read
