Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Nov.) Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales figures for November suggest that the economy held up relatively well in the middle of Q4. But the effects of the recent currency crisis are likely to... 13th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Dec.) Russian inflation held steady at 8.4% y/y in December, but we think it will rise a bit further this month and prompt the central bank to deliver a final 75bp rate hike, to 9.25%, at its meeting next... 12th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Key calls for Emerging Europe in 2022 We think GDP growth will come in below expectations this year. Even so, inflation will ultimately settle at a higher level than is currently appreciated and this feeds into our hawkish interest rate... 10th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update What’s in store for retail this year? An expected improvement in spending is encouraging for prime high streets this year. Nevertheless, with a growing share of retail turnover made online and city-based retail more vulnerable to remote... 10th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Defiant NBP, Turkish policymakers tighten their grip Poland's central bank continued its tightening cycle this week, but recent comments from policymakers have made us concerned that it is failing to appreciate the extent, persistence and possible... 7th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for December showed that the Eastern European economies rebounded last month as Delta virus waves abated, but Central Europe saw further weakness. With the... 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Our key calls for European property in 2022 We don’t expect slower near-term economic growth to derail the property upturn in 2022. Rather, we think that continued falls in property yields and a rebound in all-property rents will support... 6th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Which predictions did we get right in 2021? While office performance surprised on the upside and we could have been much bolder in our forecast for industrial yield falls, our other forecasts for 2021 proved to be broadly correct. 5th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: wage-price spiral a growing risk in 2022 With central banks across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) raising interest rates to tackle inflation, we think the risks of a wage-price spiral are low. Even so, persistently above-target inflation... 5th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturers end 2021 on a solid footing December’s PMIs suggest that EM manufacturers ended last year on a firm note, with headline indices rising in much of Emerging Europe and Emerging Asia. Encouragingly, input and output price... 4th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP tightening continues as inflation hits fresh high The National Bank of Poland (NBP) raised its policy rate by another 50bp, to 2.25% today and we expect at least another 75bp of tightening, to 3.00%, in the next few months. But with energy bills set... 4th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Istanbul industrial rental growth to slow sharply Despite tight supply and the boost to demand from e-commerce, we think Turkey’s recent currency crisis will further weigh on Istanbul industrial rents and that rental growth will slow sharply after... 23rd December 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CNB delivers another hawkish shock The Czech National Bank (CNB) hiked rates by 100bp (to 3.75%) today and Governor Rusnok struck an incredibly hawkish tone after the meeting. The tightening cycle clearly has further to run and we now... 22nd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Update European natural gas prices surging on supply fears We always expected European natural gas prices to remain high over the winter because of low stocks, but heightened uncertainty about supply from Russia has caused prices to skyrocket again. Assuming... 21st December 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on Turkey’s FX-indexed deposit scheme A new scheme announced by Turkey’s President Erdogan last night, which compensates holders of lira deposits for exchange rates losses, has triggered a sharp rally in the lira and will help to mitigate... 21st December 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Omicron? Central banks focusing firmly on inflation Inflation pressures have shown no signs of letting up across Emerging Europe, with headline inflation rates surging to multi-year highs in November. Producer price inflation has hit rates not seen in... 20th December 2021 · 15 mins read
