Global Economics Update 8 questions about the Russia-Ukraine crisis This Update answers eight key questions for economies and markets in light of the escalation in the Ukraine conflict overnight. All clients are invited to a Drop-In at 14.00 GMT/09.00 EST when our... 24th February 2022 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Update 2% inflation if Russian energy flows disrupted A spike in energy prices caused by significant disruption to Russian exports would lift Japanese inflation to 2% from April until the end of this year. However, the BoJ wouldn’t respond by lifting its... 23rd February 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Assessing the upside risk to oil prices It is not in the economic interests of either Russia or the West to use trade in energy as a weapon against each other, but that is not to say it won’t happen. If energy flows were disrupted, we think... 22nd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Russia-Ukraine crisis adds to strain on central banks The Russia-Ukraine crisis poses a challenge for central banks in advanced economies as they weigh the upside risks to inflation against the downside risks to activity. For now, we suspect that the two... 22nd February 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia and the possible impact of sanctions Russia’s decision to send troops to eastern Ukraine has prompted US sanctions on the two breakaway Ukrainian regions, and Western governments are lining up further measures that would hit Russia... 22nd February 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Omicron risks fading, but headwinds remain Large Omicron waves have caused activity to weaken in many EMs in Q1, but the good news is that mobility appears to bounce back quickly once outbreaks subside. As a result, the economic hit is likely... 22nd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Recapping the economic and market fallout from the Russia-Ukraine crisis The economic and market consequences of a war between Russia and Ukraine will depend on the severity of the conflict, and the response of the West. But in most cases the economic impact on countries... 22nd February 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bank of Israel hints at lift-off in April The strength of the latest activity, labour market and inflation data prompted a shift in guidance from the Bank of Israel today in which it said that it may start a tightening cycle in the coming... 21st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jan.) Poland’s economic recovery continued to motor along at the start of this year as industrial production and retail sales growth picked up sharply in January. This came alongside further signs of an... 21st February 2022 · 2 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack The upside looks limited for Russia’s stock market The threat of sanctions has weighed on Russia’s stock market recently, but even if tensions abated we wouldn’t expect it to make big gains over the next couple of years. 18th February 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (2021) The 4.7% expansion in Russian GDP in 2021 is consistent with a marked acceleration in growth in Q4. We expect the recovery to slow this year but the backdrop of a large and positive output gap will... 18th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Bonds & Equities Taking stock of Russia/Ukraine tensions & market implications With tensions between Russia and Ukraine continuing, the risk of a conflict with far-reaching economic consequences remains uncomfortably high. This Update considers what the impact on global... 18th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-Ukraine, Israel’s blockbuster GDP, EU funds Russia-Ukraine tensions dominated the headlines again this week and all of our research on the global implications, Ukraine's economy and the rest of the region can be found here. Meanwhile... 18th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Revisiting EM FX debt risks With FX debt burdens relatively low in most major EMs, the risk of debt crises triggered by rising US interest rates and a stronger dollar looks limited. Vulnerabilities are generally limited to... 18th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three points on the EM tightening cycle After a series of aggressive interest rate hikes, tightening cycles in parts of Emerging Europe and Latin America may now be nearing an end. But inflation concerns mean that policy rates will remain... 17th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT defies inflation surge and leaves rates on hold The further rise in inflation to close to 50% y/y in January was clearly not enough to sway Turkey’s central bank (and crucially, President Erdogan) to shift back to orthodoxy as the one-week repo... 17th February 2022 · 2 mins read
