Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s downturn in full swing and spillovers to CEE Russia's economy is in the early stages of a deep recession and we now expect a 12% contraction this year. Elsewhere, we've revised down our GDP growth forecasts by 1.0-1.3%-pts in Central and Eastern... 11th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Energy Update Can Russia evade sanctions on its crude exports? Even if the West bans crude imports from Russia entirely, the Iranian experience suggests that there will still be ways for Russia to get its oil onto global markets. But any workarounds would take... 11th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Dec.) Turkey’s latest activity figures confirm that the economy entered a downturn at the start of this year as the surge in inflation triggered a further drop in retail sales and weaker domestic demand... 11th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Russian energy sanctions, non-Gulf external strains build The US and UK embargoes on Russian energy exports could open the door for the Gulf countries to raise oil production more quickly and implement their long-term strategies of capturing market share... 10th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Energy embargo to deepen Russia’s contraction The US and UK energy embargos will reduce Russian exports by just 0.6% of GDP, but adding in the EU’s plan to reduce Russian natural gas imports takes the total loss of export revenues closer to 2% of... 10th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor War in Ukraine heightens risks in fragile EMs Financial markets in Central Europe have been hit hard by the contagion from the war in Ukraine, but spill-overs to other EMs have been limited so far. If the war were to result in a sustained period... 10th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The costs of Russia’s shift towards isolation It is highly likely that the war in Ukraine will accelerate Russia’s shift towards isolation and into autarky. This will prevent Russia from catching up with more advanced economies, while the West... 10th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Feb.) Russian inflation rose to 9.2% y/y in February and, more importantly, the weekly CPI figures up to 4 th March (also just released) show that the collapse in the ruble led to a particularly sharp 2.2%... 9th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A deep dive into Russian corporate debt risks The growing list of countries imposing restrictions on Russia’s energy exports has raised the likelihood of a deeper contraction in Russia’s economy this year and a wave of corporate defaults. This... 9th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor The war in Ukraine has triggered renewed outflows from EM financial markets as risk aversion has taken hold, but there are few signs of severe financial contagion. And even if outflows were to... 8th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP steps up tightening as inflation risks heighten The National Bank of Poland (NBP) stepped up the pace of tightening today with a 75bp interest rate hike, to 3.50%, and the marked deterioration in the inflation outlook due to the war in Ukraine is... 8th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update The consequences of an end to Russian energy trade We think that a complete ban on Russian energy imports would cause the prices of Brent crude oil and European natural gas to surge to $160pb and €300/MWh in the near term and settle at still very high... 7th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Prices could rise further Although many commodity prices are already back to levels last seen in 2008, there is still scope for prices to rise further if Western sanctions are extended to cover energy commodities. (At the end... 4th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia plunges into economic & financial turmoil Russia has fallen into chaos and we’ll get a clearer sense next week of the impact that sanctions are having on the economy. A dollar bond repayment by Gazprom on Monday will be a litmus test of the... 4th March 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack The Russia-Ukraine war and currency markets The dollar has generally strengthened since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while European currencies have generally been the hardest hit by the war. But unlike in most risk-off episodes, the currencies... 4th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Precious Metals Update Sanctions are the catalyst for palladium price gains The constraints on Russian supply will work in tandem with an improving demand-side picture from auto production to keep palladium prices elevated. As a result, we have revised up our price forecasts... 4th March 2022 · 2 mins read
