Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe & the mid-summer market turmoil Global financial markets have unwound some of the big moves from late last week and early this week, and we doubt the latest market gyrations will change the economic or policymaking outlook much in... 9th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) 7th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jul.) The large fall in headline inflation in Turkey in July will provide some comfort to the central bank that the disinflation process remains on track, although it will take time for policymakers to be... 5th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Geopolitical tensions ratchet up risks for Israel An escalation of the conflict in the Middle East risks delaying Israel’s economic recovery even further, adding to pressure on the country's strained public finances, and pushing up risk premia on... 2nd August 2024 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing finally running out of steam The sharp fall in the EM manufacturing PMI suggests that the recent strength of industry may not be sustained in Q3. The declines in the PMIs were broad-based, although they are still relatively high... 1st August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Aug. 2024) Financial vulnerabilities have continued to ease across EMs. Our EM aggregate currency crisis risk indicator hit a multi-year low in Q2, with especially large falls in Turkey and Pakistan. Sovereign... 1st August 2024 · 1 min read
Event Drop-In: EM financial risk update – The state of sovereign, bank and FX vulnerabilities 1723125600 How has the level of financial risk evolved among emerging markets over the past three months?
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) Czech National Bank Governor Michl sounded fairly cautious in his guidance about the future course of the easing cycle in the post-meeting press conference today. But the post-meeting statement struck... 1st August 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) The manufacturing PMIs for July suggest that industrial sectors lost a bit of momentum in Turkey and Russia at the start of Q3, although demand conditions still appear very strong in Russia. In both... 1st August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (Jun.) Russia’s economy lost a bit of steam in June, but it still looks like GDP growth over Q2 as a whole was very strong, with growth tracking at 4.5-5.0% y/y. 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We are optimistic about EM sovereign bonds’ returns Our view on emerging market local-currency government bonds is broadly upbeat for the next year or so. We think returns will be largest, in common-currency terms, in Emerging Asia. 31st July 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jul.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe generally fell in July, and our regional-weighted measure hit a five-month low, providing additional evidence... 30th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary & Czechia GDP (Q2) The weaker-than-expected Q2 GDP data out of Czechia and Hungary show that weak external demand is still acting as a constraint on the speed of recoveries in Central Europe. While we expect growth to... 30th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The macro impact of an Israel-Hezbollah conflict The rocket strike on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights over the weekend has heightened fears of a full-blown conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. For Israel, this risks adding to... 29th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine’s debt restructuring, Hungarian wage growth Ukraine’s government agreed a preliminary deal this week to restructure $20bn of its sovereign debt, but the big picture is that the ability to service its debt will depend on the future course of the... 26th July 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) Russia’s central bank (CBR) stepped up to the plate with a 200bp hike to its key policy rate today, to 18.00%, in response to the overheating economy and a renewed surge in inflation. While we think... 26th July 2024 · 2 mins read