Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation pressures showing signs of easing Inflation now seems to be approaching a peak across the region. Commodity prices have fallen, supply constraints have eased, pipeline price pressures have softened and firms’ selling price... 22nd September 2022 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE inflation divergence, Turkey’s BoP puzzle The latest batch of inflation data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) provides support to our view that tightening cycles in Czechia and Poland are at an end, but that Hungary’s central bank will... 16th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Energy crisis support won’t avert recessions across CEE Fiscal support to protect households and businesses from sky-high energy prices generally amounts to around 2-3% of GDP across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). This will cushion, rather than fully... 14th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jul.) Turkey’s activity figures for July showed m/m declines in both industrial production and retail sales and suggest that the period of strong growth during the summer may be coming to an end. And with... 13th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE economies hardest hit by Europe’s energy crisis In this Update, we analyse the impact of surging energy prices in Europe and show that the Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies are the most vulnerable. The share of household disposable... 12th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s central bank brings hiking cycle to an end The National Bank of Poland (NBP) slowed down the pace of its tightening cycle again today with a 25bp rate hike to 6.75%. There was no new guidance in the communications in terms of the central bank... 7th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Aug.) Inflation hit 80.2% y/y in Turkey in August, breaching 80% for the first time since 1998. Even so, the central bank is likely to remain beholden to President Erdogan’s wishes for looser policy and it... 5th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) Manufacturing PMIs for August were a mixed bag, with further signs that Russian industry is recovering while PMIs in Turkey, Poland and Czechia remained weak and are consistent with contractions in... 1st September 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Resilience so far, but much tougher times ahead Economies across the region were generally resilient in Q2 despite tightening financial conditions and the war in Ukraine. Russia’s downturn was milder than expected, Turkey’s economy has held up well... 31st August 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) 30th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe for August continued the trend in recent months of very weak data releases for the region and point to a sharp slowdown in GDP... 30th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Europe’s gas crisis deepens, CBRT financial repression? The latest surge in European wholesale gas and electricity prices has pushed governments to step up policy support to households and shore up energy supplies ahead of winter. Many economies are... 26th August 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s gas squeeze: the impact so far and next steps Russia’s squeeze on the gas market helped it to generate $50bn (6% of GDP) in total gas exports in the first half of this year, 2-3 times more than normal. Russia’s balance of payments is in such a... 25th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging Europe: Yield rises start to weigh on values Higher interest rates and a weaker economic and property outlook contributed to a rise in all-property yields in Q2. While office and industrial rents still made solid gains, this increase in yields... 25th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jul.) July’s industrial production, retail sales and construction figures for Poland showed a stabilisation in activity after the surprise 2.3% q/q fall in GDP in Q2. But we expect the economy to stagnate... 22nd August 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT plays with fire, Poland’s GDP shocker The surprise interest rate cut by Turkey's central bank this week, despite inflation reaching close to 80% y/y in July, threatens to sow the seeds of the next currency crisis. The banking sector... 19th August 2022 · 7 mins read
