Emerging Europe Economics Weekly War developments destabilising Russia, NBP’s final act The macroeconomic fallout from Russia's call-up of military reservists in September and its formal annexation of Ukrainian territory last week has continued to mount, resulting in tighter Western... 7th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BoI stays the course with another 75bp rate hike The Bank of Israel delivered another 75bp interest rate hike to 2.75% today and while the accompanying communications were not particularly hawkish, it’s clear that the tightening cycle is far from... 3rd October 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) & Turkey CPI (Sep.) Manufacturing PMIs for September were a mixed bag, but continued to paint a weak picture of industrial activity in Turkey, Czechia and Poland in Q3. In contrast, the downturn in Russian industry... 3rd October 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE central banks treading a difficult path Central banks in Central Europe are attempting to draw their tightening cycles to a close, but they are treading a difficult path given the strength of inflation and mounting downward pressure on... 30th September 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: monetary tightening now biting hard Higher interest rates are already having an impact in CEE and a large part of the tightening of monetary conditions has yet to feed through. This will add to the headwinds facing growth in the coming... 29th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for September out of Central and Eastern Europe revealed a further decline and suggest to us that the region as a whole is at the start of a recession. Meanwhile... 29th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Impact of the global energy price shock across EMs The surge in energy prices this year (particularly gas) will have the biggest impact on Central and Eastern Europe and push economies there into recession. There will be an impact in the rest of the... 29th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update MNB ends rate hiking cycle, but risks remain After raising its base rate by a larger-than-expected 125bp, to 13.00%, Hungary’s central bank (MNB) announced today that it has now ended its rate hiking cycle and we now forecast the base rate to be... 27th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: Retail comeback delayed A further deterioration in the economic backdrop is set to weigh on property rental growth, especially in the consumer-facing retail sector where we have revised down our rental forecasts in the near... 23rd September 2022 · 19 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s mobilisation, external conditions tighten President Putin's "partial mobilisation" of Russian military reservists this week as part of its ongoing war with Ukraine could have important macro implications for Russia's economy through... 23rd September 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation pressures showing signs of easing Inflation now seems to be approaching a peak across the region. Commodity prices have fallen, supply constraints have eased, pipeline price pressures have softened and firms’ selling price... 22nd September 2022 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE inflation divergence, Turkey’s BoP puzzle The latest batch of inflation data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) provides support to our view that tightening cycles in Czechia and Poland are at an end, but that Hungary’s central bank will... 16th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Energy crisis support won’t avert recessions across CEE Fiscal support to protect households and businesses from sky-high energy prices generally amounts to around 2-3% of GDP across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). This will cushion, rather than fully... 14th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jul.) Turkey’s activity figures for July showed m/m declines in both industrial production and retail sales and suggest that the period of strong growth during the summer may be coming to an end. And with... 13th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE economies hardest hit by Europe’s energy crisis In this Update, we analyse the impact of surging energy prices in Europe and show that the Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies are the most vulnerable. The share of household disposable... 12th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s central bank brings hiking cycle to an end The National Bank of Poland (NBP) slowed down the pace of its tightening cycle again today with a 25bp rate hike to 6.75%. There was no new guidance in the communications in terms of the central bank... 7th September 2022 · 3 mins read
