Emerging Europe Economics Update Lira stability may give way to further pronounced weakness We think that the surprising stability of the Turkish lira so far this year will not last much longer and we forecast it to weaken against the dollar over the coming months, from ~14.8/$ now to 18/$... 5th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Apr.) Turkey’s headline inflation rate recorded another sharp increase to 70.0% y/y in April and there’s a strong chance that it moves beyond its peak in the early 2000s in the coming months. Despite this... 5th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EU oil embargo to hit Russia’s oil exports hard The EU proposal to end imports of Russian crude oil and petroleum products by the end of the year has long been in the works. If approved, we expect Russia’s oil exports to fall by around 20% this... 4th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s growing imbalances, Russian gas flows Comments from Hungary's central bank this week suggest that policymakers are moving closer towards a joint tightening of monetary and fiscal policy to cool demand and narrow the twin deficits... 29th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR slashes rates and shifts its focus Russia’s central bank (CBR) cut its policy rate by another 300bp to 14.0% today and the communications suggest that the CBR is now more focused on boosting credit growth than it has been in the past... 29th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q1 2022) The 0.7% q/q expansion of Czech GDP in Q1 was slightly stronger than expected, although it still marked a slowdown in growth and, in particular, there were signs of weakness at the end of the quarter... 29th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update War impact reinforces investment slowdown While Q1 investment data showed further strength, the impact of the war in Ukraine on investor sentiment, economic growth and interest rates support our view that pan-European (excl. UK) investment... 29th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Growth to underwhelm as inflation surges Lockdowns in China and spillovers from the war in Ukraine will slow the EM recovery and growth is likely to be weaker than most expect. Recession risks are rising in Emerging Europe in particular. On... 28th April 2022 · 28 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation risks mount as commodity prices surge Surging commodity prices have pushed up inflation across the region and we expect inflation to hit fresh multi-year highs in the coming months. A loss of Russian gas supplies should not lead to... 28th April 2022 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Mar.) The latest activity data for Russia beat expectations in March and suggest that the economy entered a softer downturn than had been expected. We have reservations about the accuracy of the data, but... 27th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Russia weaponisation of natural gas poses economic risks Russia’s decision to suspend gas deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria from today because of a payments dispute will only strengthen the EU’s resolve to end its dependency on Russian gas, keeping gas... 27th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s current account deficit is a growing risk Spillovers from the war in Ukraine are likely to cause Turkey’s current account deficit to widen to more than 4% of GDP this year. In the recent past, deficits of this scale have tended to precede... 25th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Activity set to weaken as headwinds mount Many EMs have started the year on a solid footing, but challenging months lie ahead. While high inflation is likely to weigh on consumption, spillovers from lockdowns in China and the war in Ukraine... 25th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Slim chance of another 2000s-style boom in EM equities We think that a period of sustained outperformance from emerging market equities relative to those in developed markets – like that which accompanied the last big bull run in commodities in the 2000s... 22nd April 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s crisis easing, Poland’s energy supply boom Comments from Russian central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina this week underline the view that the most acute phase of Russia's crisis may have passed and that interest rates are likely to fall... 22nd April 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Spillovers from war in Ukraine intensifying The perfect storm of surging commodity prices due to the war in Ukraine and the hawkish shift by major DM central banks has pushed a few frontier markets to the brink of sovereign default. Sri Lanka... 22nd April 2022 · 10 mins read
