Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from EMs appear to have picked up over the past few weeks amid the general risk-off mood in global financial markets. This is a worrying development for countries with fragile... 18th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2022) Q1 GDP figures for Central and Eastern Europe smashed expectations in Poland, Romania and Hungary and suggest that their economies were running hot at the start of the year. The war in Ukraine will... 17th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation surge not just a food and energy story Higher food and energy prices go some way to explaining the rise in headline inflation rates across the emerging world, but this is only part of the story. Core inflation has also jumped in many EMs... 16th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Israel GDP (Q1 2022) The 1.6% q/q annualised contraction in Q1 GDP in Israel was weaker than analysts expected, but it was more or less in line with our forecast and doesn’t change the bigger picture that Israel’s economy... 16th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Apr.) Russian inflation came in broadly as expected in April, rising from 16.7% y/y to a two-decade high of 17.8% y/y and it looks like further increases in the coming months will be modest. This will... 13th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Gas supplies at risk, CNB shake-up, Turkey FX restrictions Russia’s sanctions on European energy companies and the closure of the Sokhranivka transit point in Ukraine this week are a sign that the risk of energy supply disruptions in Central and Eastern... 13th May 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Mar.) Turkey’s activity data for March suggest that the economy held up better than expected in Q1 as a weak lira appears to have supported industry, while policies to preserve households’ purchasing power... 13th May 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update CEE currencies face external and domestic headwinds We think that currencies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will depreciate further against the euro over the rest of this year. Within the region, we anticipate that the koruna will continue to... 12th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gas supply to Europe to remain uncertain News of force majeure on one of the pipelines in Ukraine bringing Russian natural gas to Europe just adds to our conviction that Europe is going to struggle to meet its gas needs over the next year... 11th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM sovereign debt: where do the risks lie? The strong dollar and spill-overs from the war in Ukraine have caused sovereign debt risks to escalate in some frontier markets. But most large EMs have far stronger public sector balance sheets... 11th May 2022 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s trade surplus soars as imports collapse Russia has suspended the publication of monthly trade data, but figures from its trading partners show that import values plunged 45% m/m in March while exports rose slightly amid high commodity... 11th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE industry showing no signs of weakness…yet Industrial production in Central Europe performed much better than expected in March given the sharp fall in German production. We still think industry will weaken in Q2 as supply chain disruptions... 10th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Is the ruble now too strong? EU oil embargo gets close The Russian ruble continued its remarkable rally this week, rising to a two-year high of 66/$ but we think it may now be too strong and that the Russian authorities will soon ease some restrictions on... 6th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What a strong dollar means for EMs While a stronger dollar is generally regarded as a headwind for EMs, we think it will only be a minor one for most major EMs, particularly compared with the headwinds from weakness in China... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CNB steps up tightening, but NBP opts for a smaller hike Central banks in Czechia and Poland caught investors by surprise today as the Czech central bank (CNB) unexpectedly re-accelerated the pace of its tightening cycle with a 75bp hike while Poland’s... 5th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland well prepared for life without Russian gas Poland’s government has shown no signs of meeting President Putin’s demand to get gas flows restored, but we think the economy is relatively well placed to deal with a loss of Russian supplies. As... 5th May 2022 · 4 mins read
